[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 April 23 issued 2330 UT on 01 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 2 09:30:12 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Apr was at the R0 level
with no significant flare activity. There are currently only
2 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Both these regions
are simple monopoles. New small unnumbered spots have emerged
at S24E58. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
2-4 Apr. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A pair of
faint far side halo CMEs were observed from 01/1325UT. CMEs off
the SW limb from 01/0228UT and far side SSE limb from 01/0448UT
were associated with limb prominence eruptions. A long duration
slow rise and fall C6 flare was associated with the SW solar
limb prominence eruption. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Apr
initially decreased then slightly increased ranging from 450
to 600 km/s, and is currently near 532 km/s. The mild increase
is probably due to a small coronal hole now past solar central
meridian at solar latitude N30. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. Another very small isolated coronal
hole visible near the solar central meridian at solar latitude
S15 will possibly sustain the mild increase in solar wind speed
over 02-03 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 21233223
Cocos Island 7 21133221
Darwin 7 22123212
Townsville 8 22123223
Learmonth 11 32233223
Alice Springs 8 21223213
Gingin 11 31233332
Canberra 8 10133313
Hobart 10 11233323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
Macquarie Island 18 21155422
Casey 22 45433333
Mawson 47 43344675
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 16 4433 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 12 G0
03 Apr 8 G0
04 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 01-Apr. In the Antarctic region an isolated G1 periods
was observed at Macquarie Island and Casey, an isolated G2-G3
periods were observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 2-4 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were generally observed
on 1-Apr, with periods of degraded conditions at high latitudes.
Normal HF conditions are expected 2-4 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-75%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30-45%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25-30%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Absorption observed at times at Mawson.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 01-Apr in
the Australian region were enhanced by 15-75%. Spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night hours. Strongly enhanced conditions
were observed at Cocos Island. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 574 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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