[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 April 23 issued 2330 UT on 01 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 2 09:30:12 EST 2023


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Apr             03 Apr             04 Apr
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Apr was at the R0 level 
with no significant flare activity. There are currently only 
2 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Both these regions 
are simple monopoles. New small unnumbered spots have emerged 
at S24E58. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 
2-4 Apr. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A pair of 
faint far side halo CMEs were observed from 01/1325UT. CMEs off 
the SW limb from 01/0228UT and far side SSE limb from 01/0448UT 
were associated with limb prominence eruptions. A long duration 
slow rise and fall C6 flare was associated with the SW solar 
limb prominence eruption. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Apr 
initially decreased then slightly increased ranging from 450 
to 600 km/s, and is currently near 532 km/s. The mild increase 
is probably due to a small coronal hole now past solar central 
meridian at solar latitude N30. The peak total interplanetary 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. Another very small isolated coronal 
hole visible near the solar central meridian at solar latitude 
S15 will possibly sustain the mild increase in solar wind speed 
over 02-03 Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   21233223
      Cocos Island         7   21133221
      Darwin               7   22123212
      Townsville           8   22123223
      Learmonth           11   32233223
      Alice Springs        8   21223213
      Gingin              11   31233332
      Canberra             8   10133313
      Hobart              10   11233323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    18   21155422
      Casey               22   45433333
      Mawson              47   43344675

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             16   4433 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Apr    12    G0
03 Apr     8    G0
04 Apr     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 01-Apr. In the Antarctic region an isolated G1 periods 
was observed at Macquarie Island and Casey, an isolated G2-G3 
periods were observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are 
expected on 2-4 Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were generally observed 
on 1-Apr, with periods of degraded conditions at high latitudes. 
Normal HF conditions are expected 2-4 Apr.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Apr   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-75%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-45%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-30%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Absorption observed at times at Mawson.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      132
Apr      84
May      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Apr   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Apr   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 01-Apr in 
the Australian region were enhanced by 15-75%. Spread F was observed 
at Hobart during local night hours. Strongly enhanced conditions 
were observed at Cocos Island. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values to 15% enhanced.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 574 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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