[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 March 23 issued 2331 UT on 31 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 1 10:31:42 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Mar was at the R0 level
with no significant flare activity. Several C class flares were
observed, the largest a C9.7 at 31/2056UT on the south west limb
at S23 with solar limb arches visible after the flare. A minor
flare then followed from AR3262(S19W45, alpha). There are currently
5 numbered sunspots regions on the solar disk. None of the regions
currently on the solar disk are significant. Solar activity is
expected to be at the R0 level over 1-3 Apr. No Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. A north west CME was observed from 31/1408UT
associated with a western limb prominence eruption at latitude
range N25-30, followed by a second smaller eruption from 31/1558UT
at latitude range N10-20. The solar wind speed on UT day 31-Mar
decreased ranging from 453 to 692 km/s, and is currently near
465 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to
decline as high speed wind stream effects wane. Two very small
isolated coronal holes are visible near the solar central meridian
at N30 and S15.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 33232222
Cocos Island 8 32232221
Darwin 8 33222212
Townsville 11 33233222
Learmonth 13 33233332
Alice Springs 9 23233221
Gingin 12 33232332
Canberra 9 23232222
Hobart 11 33242222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
Macquarie Island 24 35454322
Casey 16 33433333
Mawson 88 55544488
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3223 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 14 G0
02 Apr 12 G0
03 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 28 March
and is current for 31 Mar to 1 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on 31-Mar. In the Antarctic
region an isolated G1 period was observed at Macquarie Island,
G0 conditions were observed at Casey, and G1 conditions with
an isolated G4 period were observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 1-3 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were generally observed
on 31-Mar, with periods of degraded conditions at high latitudes.
Normal HF conditions are expected 1-3 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-40%
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35-65%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25-35%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day, with frequent
absorption observed at Mawson.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 117
Mar 80
Apr 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31-Mar in
the Australian region were enhanced by 20-65%. Mild depressions
of 15% were observed at Hobart and Canberra during the local
day. Strong spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. Brief spread F was observed at Perth just before local
dawn. Strongly enhanced conditions were observed at Niue. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 487 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 67900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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