[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 28 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 29 09:30:53 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Sep was at R0 levels, with
several low level C-class flares. The C class flare activity
originated from solar region AR3107 (S25W22, beta). There are
currently four numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. All
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-levels over 29-Sep to 01-Oct. A small solar filament
located at N10E30 erupted at 28/0300-0400UT, and was associated
with a minor predominately eastward directed coronal mass ejection.
Event modelling shows a weak glancing blow is possible 22UT on
01-Oct. In LASCO C2/C3 imagery other minor eastward mass ejections
were observed from 28/05UT and 28/07UT, and also to the northwest
from 28/06UT, these are all considered as minor non-Earth directed
events. A pair of equatorial coronal holes are currently straddling
the solar central meridian. The solar wind speed on 28-Sep varied
between 475 to 564 km/s, with an overall decline and is currently
near 470 km/s. The peak interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 6 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to
-1 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 29-Sep
with a continuing declining trend. The solar wind speed is expected
to be near background levels over 29-Sep, gradually increasing
on 30-Sep and remain elevated on 01-Oct, due to a coronal hole
high speed wind stream from the pair of coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11000111
Cocos Island 1 11000110
Darwin 2 12000111
Townsville 3 11101121
Learmonth 2 21000---
Alice Springs 1 11000111
Gingin 2 21000021
Canberra 1 11000011
Hobart 1 11100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 11000010
Casey 8 33310122
Mawson 14 42102344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 18 5324 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 7 G0
30 Sep 16 G0, chance G1
01 Oct 25 G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 28 September
and is current for 30 Sep to 2 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian and Antarctic region on 28-Sep.
Generally G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 29-30 Sep
with a chance for G1 periods on 30 Sep. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence
patterns suggest that G1 conditions are likely during the interval
01-02 Oct due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. Also,
there is chance of a weak CME arrival late on 01-Oct associated
with a solar filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 29-30 Sep, with degraded HF conditions possible during from
late in the UT day on 30-Sep to 01-Oct for middle to high latitudes,
during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Sep were
mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15-20% in
the Australian region. Equatorial ionospheric scintillation was
observed at Weipa and Darwin during the period 11-15UT on 28
Sep. In general, regional MUFs are expected to be near to 15%
above monthly predicted values over the next three days. Degraded
conditions may be experienced during local night hours for southern
Australian region on 01-Oct in association with an anticipated
increase in geomagnetic activity. Depressed conditions may be
experienced after local dawn on 02-Oct for southern Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 228000 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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