[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 28 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 29 09:30:53 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Sep             30 Sep             01 Oct
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Sep was at R0 levels, with 
several low level C-class flares. The C class flare activity 
originated from solar region AR3107 (S25W22, beta). There are 
currently four numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. All 
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected 
to be at R0-levels over 29-Sep to 01-Oct. A small solar filament 
located at N10E30 erupted at 28/0300-0400UT, and was associated 
with a minor predominately eastward directed coronal mass ejection. 
Event modelling shows a weak glancing blow is possible 22UT on 
01-Oct. In LASCO C2/C3 imagery other minor eastward mass ejections 
were observed from 28/05UT and 28/07UT, and also to the northwest 
from 28/06UT, these are all considered as minor non-Earth directed 
events. A pair of equatorial coronal holes are currently straddling 
the solar central meridian. The solar wind speed on 28-Sep varied 
between 475 to 564 km/s, with an overall decline and is currently 
near 470 km/s. The peak interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) 
was 6 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to 
-1 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 29-Sep 
with a continuing declining trend. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be near background levels over 29-Sep, gradually increasing 
on 30-Sep and remain elevated on 01-Oct, due to a coronal hole 
high speed wind stream from the pair of coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: G0

Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000111
      Cocos Island         1   11000110
      Darwin               2   12000111
      Townsville           3   11101121
      Learmonth            2   21000---
      Alice Springs        1   11000111
      Gingin               2   21000021
      Canberra             1   11000011
      Hobart               1   11100011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     1   11000010
      Casey                8   33310122
      Mawson              14   42102344

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        33
           Planetary             18   5324 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Sep     7    G0
30 Sep    16    G0, chance G1
01 Oct    25    G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 28 September 
and is current for 30 Sep to 2 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Australian and Antarctic region on 28-Sep. 
Generally G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 29-30 Sep 
with a chance for G1 periods on 30 Sep. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence 
patterns suggest that G1 conditions are likely during the interval 
01-02 Oct due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. Also, 
there is chance of a weak CME arrival late on 01-Oct associated 
with a solar filament eruption.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 29-30 Sep, with degraded HF conditions possible during from 
late in the UT day on 30-Sep to 01-Oct for middle to high latitudes, 
during local night hours.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Sep    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      53
Sep      68
Oct      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Sep    80    Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep    80    Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Sep were 
mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15-20% in 
the Australian region. Equatorial ionospheric scintillation was 
observed at Weipa and Darwin during the period 11-15UT on 28 
Sep. In general, regional MUFs are expected to be near to 15% 
above monthly predicted values over the next three days. Degraded 
conditions may be experienced during local night hours for southern 
Australian region on 01-Oct in association with an anticipated 
increase in geomagnetic activity. Depressed conditions may be 
experienced after local dawn on 02-Oct for southern Australian 
region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    9.9 p/cc  Temp:   228000 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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