[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 September 22 issued 2331 UT on 29 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 30 09:31:01 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0-R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 146/100 146/100
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Sep was at R0 levels, with
several low to mid level C-class flares. Most of the C class
flare activity appears to be associated with the return of previously
flare active solar region AR3098 to the northeast solar limb.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk, none of which are particularly significant. Solar region
AR3105(S16W56,beta) is declining, AR3111(N27E46, alpha) is growing,
other regions have been stable. Solar activity is expected to
increase in coming days due to the apparent return of AR3098,
with isolated R1 class activity becoming more likely. No Earth
directed CMEs have been observed. A small solar filament located
at N60E05 erupted at 29/0300-0400UT, and was associated with
a very minor faint steeply northwest directed coronal mass ejection,
which is not considered geoeffective. Several CMEs were observed
off the northeast limb in LASCO and STERO-A imagery. These CMEs
are likely to be associated with returning AR3098, and are all
considered non-geoeffective. The strongest northeast CME was
observed from 29/1236UT in LASCO C2 imagery, and modelling shows
an Earth miss. The second hole of a pair of equatorial coronal
holes is currently crossing the solar central meridian. The solar
wind speed on 29-Sep varied between 550 to 454 km/s, with an
increase in wind speed observed after 29/1000UT and is currently
near 500 km/s. The peak interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 7 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to
-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to further increase over
30-Sep and to remain elevated over 01-02 Oct, due to a coronal
hole high speed wind streams from the pair of coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 11232311
Cocos Island 4 01222210
Darwin 7 11232311
Townsville 9 11333312
Learmonth 8 11233321
Alice Springs 8 01333311
Gingin 4 10222211
Canberra 5 11222212
Hobart 5 10222212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 00232211
Casey 12 33432222
Mawson 16 32333244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 16 G0, chance of G1
01 Oct 30 G1
02 Oct 25 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 28 September
and is current for 30 Sep to 2 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian and Antarctic region on 28-Sep.
Generally G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for 30 Sep with
a chance for G1 periods. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns
suggest that G1 conditions are likely during the interval 01-02
Oct due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. Also, there
is chance of a weak CME arrival late on 01-Oct associated with
a solar filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
01 Oct Normal Fair Fair-poor
02 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are initially
expected for 30 Sep, with degraded HF conditions possible during
from mid to late in the UT day on 30-Sep to 01-02 Oct for middle
to high latitudes, during local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
02 Oct 60 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Sep were
mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15-25% in
the Australian region. Strong enhancements of up to 65% were
observed at Cocos Island 29/06-12UT. Regional MUFs are expected
to be near to 15% above monthly predicted values for 30-Sep.
Degraded local night conditions with mild MUF depressions after
local dawn may be experienced for southern Australian region
over 01-02 Oct in association with an anticipated increase in
geomagnetic activity. The degree of ionospheric depression is
difficult to estimate due to the current enhanced ionospheric
conditions. Northern Australian region MUFs are expected to remain
near to 15% above predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 543 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 548000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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