[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 27 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 28 09:31:00 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Sep was at R0 levels, with
several C-class flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3105 (S16W30, beta-gamma) and AR3107
(S25W10, gamma) have grown and both regions are responsible for
most of the recent flaring. All other regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 28-30 Sep, with low level R1 flares possible from AR3105
and AR3107. A CME was observed in LASCO imagery from the west
limb from 27/1100UT. Analysis indicates this CME will not be
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 27-Sep was at a steady
incline, and ranged from 360 to 738 km/s, and is currently near
570 km/s. The peak interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was
30 nT, and is currently near 5 nT. The north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +19 to -18 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to
remain elevated on 28-Sep as the combination of coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects and an impact from a CME first
observed 24-Sep abate. The solar wind speed is expected to be
near background levels over 29-30 Sep, with the possibility of
increasing by the end of the period due to a coronal hole high
speed wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: G1
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 18 45342222
Cocos Island 14 35332112
Darwin 17 45342212
Townsville 18 45342222
Learmonth 19 45343222
Alice Springs 17 45342212
Gingin 16 44343222
Canberra 20 45352222
Hobart 20 35353222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
Macquarie Island 19 33164122
Casey 37 56644233
Mawson 34 54444346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1001 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 10 G0
29 Sep 5 G0
30 Sep 8 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 27-Sep, due to the combination of a coronal hole high
speed wind stream and impact from a CME first observed 24-Sep.
G0-G2 conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 28-30 Sep, with the
possibility of unsettled G0 to G1 conditions at the end of the
period due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 28-30 Sep, with mild degradations possible on 28-Sep during
local night hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
29 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
30 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27-Sep were
mostly enhanced by 15-20% in the Australian region. Sporadic-E
was observed in Brisbane and spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night. Mildly degraded conditions were observed
in most sites due to geomagnetic activity on 27-Sep. Regional
MUFs are expected to be 15-20% enhanced to near monthly predicted
values over 28-30 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 13.0 p/cc Temp: 23000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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