[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 26 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 27 09:30:58 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Sep             28 Sep             29 Sep
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Sep was at R0 levels, with 
C-class flaring only. There are currently five numbered sunspot 
regions on the solar disk. AR3105 (S16W15, beta-gamma) has been 
unstable and AR3107 (S25E04, gamma) has increased in area and 
magnetic complexity. All other sunspot regions are either stable 
or in decay, with AR3110 (N15E40, beta) only showing decay in 
the trailer spots. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 
levels over 27-29 Sep, with isolated R1 level flaring from AR3105, 
AR3107 and AR3110. A filament eruption was observed in SDO imagery 
from 26/0748UT near the eastern limb. A CME was observed in LASCO 
and STEREO-A imagery from 26/0936UT from the eastern limb, but 
analysis indicates it is not geoeffective. No other CMEs were 
observed. A slight incline in solar wind parameters began at 
26/1937UT. The solar wind speed on UT day 26-Sep was light and 
ranged from 371 to 293 km/s, and is currently near 360 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) 
was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 
to -12 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain at background 
levels over 27-29 Sep.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: G0

Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11011002
      Cocos Island         1   11110001
      Darwin               3   11010003
      Townsville           4   21011013
      Learmonth            2   21010002
      Alice Springs        3   10011003
      Gingin               3   20010003
      Canberra             2   10012002
      Hobart               2   00022002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     2   00022001
      Casey                7   33221003
      Mawson               6   42011012

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2212 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Sep     8    G0
28 Sep     5    G0
29 Sep     5    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 26-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 27-29 Sep.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 27-29 Sep.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Sep    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      53
Sep      68
Oct      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
28 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-Sep were 
mostly near predicted monthly values, with 30% enhancements during 
local night in the northern Australian regions. Sporadic-E was 
observed at the Cocos Islands and Brisbane during local night, 
and spread-F was observed at Darwin during local night. Ionospheric 
scintillation was observed at Weipa on 26-Sep between 1114-1140UT. 
Regional MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
over 26-28 Sep, with mild enhancements possible during local 
night hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    50400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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