[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 26 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 27 09:30:58 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Sep was at R0 levels, with
C-class flaring only. There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3105 (S16W15, beta-gamma) has been
unstable and AR3107 (S25E04, gamma) has increased in area and
magnetic complexity. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay, with AR3110 (N15E40, beta) only showing decay in
the trailer spots. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 27-29 Sep, with isolated R1 level flaring from AR3105,
AR3107 and AR3110. A filament eruption was observed in SDO imagery
from 26/0748UT near the eastern limb. A CME was observed in LASCO
and STEREO-A imagery from 26/0936UT from the eastern limb, but
analysis indicates it is not geoeffective. No other CMEs were
observed. A slight incline in solar wind parameters began at
26/1937UT. The solar wind speed on UT day 26-Sep was light and
ranged from 371 to 293 km/s, and is currently near 360 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4
to -12 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain at background
levels over 27-29 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11011002
Cocos Island 1 11110001
Darwin 3 11010003
Townsville 4 21011013
Learmonth 2 21010002
Alice Springs 3 10011003
Gingin 3 20010003
Canberra 2 10012002
Hobart 2 00022002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 00022001
Casey 7 33221003
Mawson 6 42011012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2212 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 8 G0
28 Sep 5 G0
29 Sep 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 26-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 27-29 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 27-29 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
28 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-Sep were
mostly near predicted monthly values, with 30% enhancements during
local night in the northern Australian regions. Sporadic-E was
observed at the Cocos Islands and Brisbane during local night,
and spread-F was observed at Darwin during local night. Ionospheric
scintillation was observed at Weipa on 26-Sep between 1114-1140UT.
Regional MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 26-28 Sep, with mild enhancements possible during local
night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 50400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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