[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 25 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 26 09:30:53 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 142/96 145/99
COMMENT: olar activity on UT day 25-Sep was at the ASWAS R0 level,
with most of the low to mid C class flare activity from AR3107(S25E16,
beta) and AR3110(N15E52, beta). Regions AR3105(S16W03) and AR3107
have magnetically simplified to beta class (dipole field). The
three regions of interest, AR3105, AR3107 and AR3110 have reduced
in area over the last 24 hours. There are currently five solar
regions on the visible solar disk. Solar flare activity is expected
to be at the R0-R1 level, with isolated low level R class flaring
possible from AR3110 and AR3107. A new solar region may be just
behind the solar limb at latitude N30. A coronal hole is visible
in the north-east solar quadrant. No Earth directed CMEs have
been observed, with an erupting prominence observed off the south-east
solar limb from 24/2000UT. The solar wind speed on UT day 25-Sep ranged
from 305 to 440 km/s, with a declining trend. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +2 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed
has steadily declined over the past 24 hours, and is currently
at nominal background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11122101
Cocos Island 2 12111100
Darwin 3 11112101
Townsville 4 21222101
Learmonth 4 21221101
Alice Springs 3 11121101
Gingin 3 21121100
Canberra 2 01122000
Hobart 4 01132101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
Macquarie Island 6 01043100
Casey 8 24322101
Mawson 6 32212210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 2323 2433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 12 G0
27 Sep 8 G0
28 Sep 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 25-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 26-28 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 26-28 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on
23 September and is current for 24-26 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 25-Sep were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Regional MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 26-28 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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