[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 24 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 25 09:30:55 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 147/101


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Sep             26 Sep             27 Sep
Activity     R1                 R1                 R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   148/102            152/107            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Sep was at the R0 level. 
Solar regions AR3107(S25E28,, beta-gamma) and AR3110(N15E65, 
beta) produced 10 low level C class flares between them, the 
largest a C7.2 flare from each. Solar region AR3105(S16E10, beta-gamma) 
has declined in area, though has increased in magnetic complexity. 
Both AR3107 and AR3110 have grown, with AR3107 increasing in 
magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected to be at R1 levels 
over 25-27 Sep, with isolated low level ASWAS R flaring expected. 
A patchy south polar extension coronal hole is visible in the 
solar south-west quadrant and is mildly elevating solar wind 
speed. Another coronal hole is visible in the north-east solar 
quadrant. Two CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery, the first 
from 24/0724UT steeply to the south-west, and the second from 
24/1736UT to the east, possibly associated with a C7 flare from 
AR3110 at 24/1719UT. Neither are considered as Earth directed. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 24-Sep ranged from 406 to 444 
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) 
was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 
to -7 nT. Intervals of mild southward IMF conditions were observed 
01-06UT, 0830-1130UT and 15-17UT on 24 Sep. The solar wind speed 
is expected to remain mildly elevated over 25 Sep due to ongoing 
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, then gradually decline.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: G0

Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22122221
      Cocos Island         5   12122220
      Darwin               6   22122222
      Townsville           6   22122221
      Learmonth           10   22232332
      Alice Springs        6   22122221
      Gingin               8   12122332
      Canberra             5   12122221
      Hobart               6   12132221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    15   12245330
      Casey               13   34331322
      Mawson              34   35323565

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12   3233 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Sep    15    G0, slight chance G1
26 Sep    12    G0
27 Sep     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 24-Sep. In the Antarctic region G0 geomagnetic 
conditions were observed at Casey, with periods of G1-G2 observed 
at Mawson, and an isolated G1 period observed at Macquarie Island. 
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 25-27 Sep, with a 
chance of isolated G1 periods due to coronal hole high speed 
wind stream effects on 25-Sep.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 25-27 Sep, with mild degradations possible for middle to 
high latitudes during local night hours on 25-Sep, due to a coronal 
hole high speed wind stream possibly inducing mild geomagnetic 
activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Sep    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      53
Sep      68
Oct      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on 
23 September and is current for 24-26 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 24-Sep were mostly near predicted monthly values 
in the Australian region. Spread F was observed during local 
night hours at Hobart. Regional MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values over 25-27 Sep. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
may be experienced during local night hours on 25-Sep for southern 
Australian region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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