[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 24 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 25 09:30:55 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 152/107 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Sep was at the R0 level.
Solar regions AR3107(S25E28,, beta-gamma) and AR3110(N15E65,
beta) produced 10 low level C class flares between them, the
largest a C7.2 flare from each. Solar region AR3105(S16E10, beta-gamma)
has declined in area, though has increased in magnetic complexity.
Both AR3107 and AR3110 have grown, with AR3107 increasing in
magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected to be at R1 levels
over 25-27 Sep, with isolated low level ASWAS R flaring expected.
A patchy south polar extension coronal hole is visible in the
solar south-west quadrant and is mildly elevating solar wind
speed. Another coronal hole is visible in the north-east solar
quadrant. Two CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery, the first
from 24/0724UT steeply to the south-west, and the second from
24/1736UT to the east, possibly associated with a C7 flare from
AR3110 at 24/1719UT. Neither are considered as Earth directed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 24-Sep ranged from 406 to 444
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4
to -7 nT. Intervals of mild southward IMF conditions were observed
01-06UT, 0830-1130UT and 15-17UT on 24 Sep. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain mildly elevated over 25 Sep due to ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, then gradually decline.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 22122221
Cocos Island 5 12122220
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville 6 22122221
Learmonth 10 22232332
Alice Springs 6 22122221
Gingin 8 12122332
Canberra 5 12122221
Hobart 6 12132221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
Macquarie Island 15 12245330
Casey 13 34331322
Mawson 34 35323565
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3233 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 15 G0, slight chance G1
26 Sep 12 G0
27 Sep 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Sep. In the Antarctic region G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed at Casey, with periods of G1-G2 observed
at Mawson, and an isolated G1 period observed at Macquarie Island.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 25-27 Sep, with a
chance of isolated G1 periods due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects on 25-Sep.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 25-27 Sep, with mild degradations possible for middle to
high latitudes during local night hours on 25-Sep, due to a coronal
hole high speed wind stream possibly inducing mild geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on
23 September and is current for 24-26 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 24-Sep were mostly near predicted monthly values
in the Australian region. Spread F was observed during local
night hours at Hobart. Regional MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 25-27 Sep. Mildly degraded HF conditions
may be experienced during local night hours on 25-Sep for southern
Australian region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list