[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 September 22 issued 2331 UT on 23 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 24 09:31:10 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 1810UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 146/100 142/96 148/102
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Sep was at the R1 level
due to a single M1 event from a new region AR3110(N18E72, beta)
located toward the northeast solar limb. This flare was associated
with an eastward, non Earth directed CME observed at 23/1854UT
in LASCO C3 imagery. Earlier in the UT day, another CME was observed
at 23/1412UT in LASCO C2 imagery, directed westward, associated
with an erupting prominence, located near S20W60-90 at 23/1323UT.
A type II radio sweep was also observed in association with this
event. Event modelling shows this event is also not Earth directed.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. Solar regions AR3107(S25E43, beta), AR3109(N10W23, beta),
3102(S28W61, beta) all produced C class flare activity. Solar activity
is expected to be at R1 levels over 24-26 Sep, with isolated low level
ASWAS R flaring expected. A patchy south polar extension coronal hole
is currently just west of solar central meridian. The solar wind speed
on UT day 23-Sep was mildly elevated, ranging from 380 to 446 km/s.
A weak partial shock signature is evident in the solar wind parameters
at 23/2029UT, possibly from a CME on 20 Sep. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain mildly elevated over 24-25 Sep due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 21223322
Cocos Island 7 21222312
Darwin 9 32223312
Townsville 10 32223322
Learmonth 9 21233322
Alice Springs 9 21223323
Gingin 10 11223333
Canberra 8 21223312
Hobart 8 21223312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
Macquarie Island 15 11444411
Casey 16 44422323
Mawson 22 43333345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1010 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 18 G0, chance G1
25 Sep 15 G0, slight chance G1
26 Sep 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 24-26 Sep, with a chance of isolated G1 periods due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 24-26 Sep, with mild degradations possible for middle to
high latitudes due to anticipated coronal hole high speed wind
stream induced geomagnetic activity and a chance of a weak CME
impact on 24-Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on
23 September and is current for 24-26 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 22-Sep were near predicted monthly values to
30% enhanced in Northern Australia. Spread F was observed during
local night hours at Hobart and Perth. Hobart MUFs are currently
trending to a 15% depression at 23/2300UT. Regional MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 24-26 Sep,
with mild depressions/degradations possible for southern Australia
during local night and briefly after local dawn due to possible
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 71500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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