[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 22 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 23 09:31:00 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 138/92 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Sep was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3105 (S16E34, beta)
is the largest sunspot region and has shown minor growth in its
trailer spots. AR3108 (S13E06, beta) and AR3109 (N10W12, beta)
have exhibited spot development over the 24-hour period. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 23-25 Sep. A low velocity
west-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A
imagery from 22/0712UT. Modelling indicates this CME does not
contain an Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Sep was
elevated, ranging from 375 to 460 km/s, and is currently near
440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 10 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over
23-25 Sep due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects and a possible weak CME impact on 24-Sep from a CME first
observed on 20-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11201113
Cocos Island 6 11211223
Darwin 5 11201123
Townsville 5 11211113
Learmonth 4 01201213
Alice Springs 4 11201113
Gingin 4 11201222
Canberra 4 01201113
Hobart 4 11201103
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 00102013
Casey 11 24411213
Mawson 13 12212245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1012 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 18 G0, chance G1
24 Sep 18 G0, chance G1
25 Sep 16 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 23-25 Sep, with a chance of G1 due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects and a possible weak CME impact on 24-Sep
from a CME first observed on 20-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 23-25 Sep, with mild degradations possible for middle to
high latitudes due to anticipated coronal hole high speed wind
stream induced geomagnetic activity and a chance of a weak CME
impact on 24-Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on
21 September and is current for 21-23 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 22-Sep were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced in Northern Australia. Regional MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 23-25 Sep, with mild
depressions/degradations possible for southern Australia during
local night and briefly after local dawn due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 228000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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