[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 September 22 issued 2331 UT on 21 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 22 09:31:17 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0702UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 138/92 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Sep was at the R1 level,
with a M1.0 flare at 21/0702UT from AR3107 (S23E61, beta). There
are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3105 (S14E47, beta) and AR3108 (S14E20, beta) have exhibited
spot development over the 24-hour period. AR3102 (S28W36, beta)
has shown minor decay in its trailer spots. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 22-24 Sep. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on
UT day 21-Sep was elevated, ranging from 420 to 515 km/s, and
is currently near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 22-24 Sep due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects and a possible weak CME impact on 24-Sep from
a CME first observed on 20-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11121002
Cocos Island 2 21120000
Darwin 3 11121002
Townsville 4 11221012
Learmonth 3 21121002
Alice Springs 3 10221002
Gingin 2 10110002
Canberra 2 01111002
Hobart 3 11121002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 00130000
Casey 9 24421002
Mawson 10 42333200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2211 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 18 G0, chance G1
23 Sep 18 G0, chance G1
24 Sep 18 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 21-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 22-24 Sep, with a chance of G1 due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects and a possible weak CME impact
on 24-Sep from a CME first observed on 20-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
23 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 22-24 Sep, with mild degradations possible for middle to
high latitudes due to anticipated coronal hole high speed wind
stream induced geomagnetic activity and a chance of a weak CME
impact on 24-Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on
21 September and is current for 21-23 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 21-Sep were near predicted monthly values to
15-40% enhanced in Northern Australia. Regional MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 22-24 Sep, with mild
depressions/degradations possible for southern Australian region
during local night and briefly after local dawn due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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