[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 September 22 issued 2331 UT on 20 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 21 09:31:17 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1122UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 138/92
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Sep was at R1 level, due
to a single M1 event from solar region AR3102 (S25W22, beta).
This minor flare event was associated with minor radio burst
activity, however no CME appeared associated with the flare.
This region also produced several C class flares. The other solar
region of interest, region AR3105(S14E62) was relatively flare
quiet. AR3102 may be showing some intermediate spot decline over the
past two days. A new small solar region is now numbered, AR3106(S10E53,
beta) near AR3105, and another spotted solar region appears to
be rotating onto the solar disk over the south east limb, behind
and slightly south of AR3105. There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 21-23 Sep, with isolated low level
M class flare activity possible from AR3105 and AR3102. A narrow
westward CME was observed in LASCO/STEREO-A 20/0636UT, modelling
shows it is unlikely to be significantly geoeffective. Another
westward CME is visible 20/1953UT in STEREOA, though more images
are required for modelling. The solar wind speed on UT day 20-Sep
remained elevated ranging from 438 to 519 km/s, with gradual
declining trend. The peak interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decline
then increase again during 22 Sep due to a coronal hole high
speed wind stream from a patchy medium sized equatorial coronal
hole currently just west of solar central meridian.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 12111121
Cocos Island 2 11110020
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 5 22022121
Learmonth 5 21122221
Alice Springs 3 12012110
Gingin 5 21111231
Canberra 2 11011111
Hobart 4 12112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 12111111
Casey 16 34521232
Mawson 24 43322364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2101 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 12 G0
22 Sep 18 G0, chance G1
23 Sep 18 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G2 at Mawson and isolated G1 activity at Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected for 21 Sep, with a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity on 22-23 Sep due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects. There is an chance for a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity on 24-Sep from a recent slow narrow westward directed
CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
23 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 21 Sep, with mild degradations possible for middle to high
latitudes on 22-23 Sep due to anticipated coronal hole high speed
wind stream induced geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 20-Sep were
near predicted monthly values for mainland Australia, with enhancements
of 15-40% at Cocos Island and Niue. Strong spread F was observed
20/1500-1550UT at Cocos Island. Regional MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced for 21-Sep,
with mild depressions/degradations possible for southern Australian
region during local night 22-23 Sep and briefly after local dawn
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 259000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list