[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 September 22 issued 2331 UT on 19 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 20 09:31:00 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Sep was at R0 levels, with
several minor C class events. The two largest were a C6.5 at
19/0102UT and a C7.6 at 19/0230UT. The first flare was from AR3105
(S13E71, beta), the second flare was from AR3102 (S28W05, beta).
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
An eastward (non geoeffective) CME was observed at 19/0136UT,
and a faint SW CME was observed at 19/0512UT in LASCO C2. An
image review did not locate an obvious on disk source for the
faint SW CME, and is currently presumed to be farside. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 20-22 Sep, with
isolated low level M class flare activity possible from AR3105
and AR3102. The solar wind speed on UT day 19-Sep remained elevated
ranging from 416 to 550 km/s. The peak interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +8 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually
decline then increase again during 22 Sep due to a coronal hole
high speed wind stream from a patchy medium sized equatorial
coronal hole currently at solar central meridian. The 10MeV solar
proton flux, is below event levels though remains very slightly
enhanced.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 21122321
Cocos Island 4 21112210
Darwin 5 21112221
Townsville 6 21122222
Learmonth 8 32122321
Alice Springs 6 21122321
Gingin 9 31023331
Canberra 4 20022221
Hobart 8 21033321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
Macquarie Island 17 21135530
Casey 16 44432232
Mawson 26 53223545
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2232 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 14 G0
21 Sep 12 G0
22 Sep 18 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 activity
at Macquarie Island and at Mawson. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 20-21 Sep, with a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity on 22-23 Sep due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 20-21 Sep, with mild degradations possible for middle to
high latitudes on 22 Sep due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 19-Sep were
15-30% enhanced. Regional MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 20-22 Sep, with mild
depressions/degradations
possible for southern Australian region during local night 22-23
Sep and briefly after local dawn due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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