[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 September 22 issued 2332 UT on 18 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 19 09:32:11 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 138/92 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Sep was at R0 levels, with
two long duration low-level C-class flares. The first C-class
flare occurred at 18/1538UT from a region near S20 behind the
eastern limb. This is possibly the return of AR3089, due back
on 20-Sep, which previously produced M-class flares. The second
C-class flare occurred from 18/1752UT from AR3100 (S26W48, beta).
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. AR3100 decreased in area over the UT day, AR3102 (S29E04,
beta) iwas unstable and AR3103 (S17W42 was stable. A new region
has developed near S15W46 with alpha magnetic complexity, but
is not yet named. Solar activity is expected to be at R0 levels
over 19-21 Sep, with a chance of R1. A filament was observed
lifting off from 18/1600UT in SDO imagery, associated with the
long duration C-class flare from AR3100. A CME was observed from
the southwest quadrant in LASCO imagery from 18/1812UT. Analysis
suggests the CME will not be geoeffective. The solar wind speed
on UT day 18-Sep increased, and ranged from 323 to 550 km/s and
is currently near 500 km/s. The peak interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +9 to -9 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 19-Sep, possibly due to the combination of a glancing blow
from a CME first observed 16-Sep and the late arrival of a coronal
hole high speed wind stream. The solar wind sped is expected
to decline to background levels over 20-21 Sep. There is a chance
for the solar wind speed to increase again late on 21-Sep, due
to a new equatorial coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22223122
Cocos Island 6 22222221
Darwin 6 22222122
Townsville 7 22223122
Learmonth 9 22223223
Alice Springs 7 22123122
Gingin 8 22123232
Canberra 8 22323122
Hobart 8 22233122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
Macquarie Island 14 12435121
Casey 19 45432223
Mawson 15 33332343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1011 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 16 G0, chance of G1
20 Sep 14 G0
21 Sep 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Macquarie Island and at Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 19-21 Sep,with the possibility of unsettled
conditions on 19-Sep and late 21-Sep due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 19-21 Sep, with mild degradations possible due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
20 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
21 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on
17 September and is current for 18-19 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT dau 18-Sep were 15-20% enhanced during the local
day and night. Sporadic-E was observed at Darwin and Townsville
during local night. Regional MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 19-21 Sep, with mild depressions
possible during local night due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 50900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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