[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 September 22 issued 2331 UT on 16 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 17 09:31:09 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.9 0949UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M6.2 1559UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Sep was at the R2 level,
with two M-class flares. An M7.9 flare occurred at 16/0940UT
and an an M6.2 flare occurred at 16/1550UT. Both flares came
from AR3089 (N20W85, beta). There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3089 is currently rotating
off the solar disk, AR3103 (S16W02, beta) has been unstable,
and AR3100 (S25W25, beta) and AR3102 (S28E29, beta) have been
stable. A new unnumbered region has shown rapid growth over the
24 hour period near S25E30. Solar activity is expected to be
at R0-R1 levels on 17-Sep, primarily due to AR3098 until it rotates
over the western limb. Solar activity is expected to be at R0
levels over 18-19-Sep, with a chance of R1. A filament liftoff
can be seen near S25W55 from 16/0118UT in SDO imagery. A subsequent
CME was observed in LASCO imagery from 16/0200UT from the southwest
quadrant. Analysis indicates this may have a glancing blow to
Earth on late 18-Sep. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Sep was
mild and ranged from 315 to 371 km/s, and is currently near 340
km/s. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 17-19
Sep due to the combination a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole currently near a geoeffective location and the
glancing blow from the aforementioned CME. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +12 to -4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12210101
Cocos Island 3 12220100
Darwin 4 13210102
Townsville 5 13220112
Learmonth 3 12220101
Alice Springs 3 12210101
Gingin 2 02210100
Canberra 2 02210000
Hobart 2 02210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 02100000
Casey 7 24320002
Mawson 3 13120100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 3010 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 20 G0, chance of G1
18 Sep 30 G0-G1
19 Sep 25 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 16-Sep. Predominantly G0 conditions
are expected on 17-Sep, with possible isolated periods of G1
due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. G0-G1 conditions
are expected on 18-Sep due to the combination of coronal hole
high speed wind streams and an anticipated glancing blow from
a CME first observed 16-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 19-Sep, with a chance of G1, as coronal hole and CME impacts
abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Sep Normal-fair Fair Fair
19 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 17-Sep, with mild degradations possible during local nights
hours. Mostly normal to mildly degraded HF propagation conditions
are expected on 18-19 Sep due to the combination of coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects and an anticipated glancing blow
from a CME first observed on 16-Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 80 About 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Sep were
mildly enhanced to near predicted monthly values, particularly
during local night, for most sites. Ionospheric scintillation
occurred at Darwin for two periods during local night, at 16.1158UT
and 16/1228UT. Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly near to
15% above predicted monthly values on 17-Sep. Regional MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 18-19 Sep,
with mild depressions possible during local nights hours due
to the combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
and an anticipated glancing blow from a CME first observed 16-Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 23200 K Bz: 10 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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