[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 September 22 issued 2331 UT on 15 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 16 09:31:01 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Sep was at the R0 level.
The largest flare was a C6.4 flare at 15/0633UT. From SDO94 imagery
this minor x-ray flare could be either from a region behind the
north-west limb at latitude N32 or from a near simultaneous flare
from region AR3100. The largest and most magnetically complex
solar region currently on the solar disk, AR3098(N20W73, beta-gamma),
is about to rotate off disk. Two other solar regions of note
AR3100(S25W10, beta) and AR3102(S28E41, beta) currently only
exhibit slight M class flare potential. A new spot group appears
to be emerging on disk at S15E08. There are currently 4 spotted
regions on the solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be predominately
at R0 levels, with the chance of low level R1 flares over 16-18
Sep. No significant Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A
small solar filament located at S05W45, lifted off the solar
disk at around 15/0500UT. Modelling suggests the associated small
and slow westward CME is not likely to be geoeffective. Reviewing
the solar wind data a weak partial shock signature is evident
in solar wind parameters at 14/2154, with the IMF Bz only briefly
fluctuating southward. The solar wind density abruptly decreased
rather than the typical increase with shock arrivals, possibly
indicating a slow reverse shock. On 15-Sep the solar wind total
magnetic field was positively enhanced, but solar wind speed
showed little change. The solar wind has been light over 15-Sep,
ranging from 298 to 350 km/sec. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +1 to +14 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to gradually increase over 16-17-Sep due to the effects of a
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole now located
in the north-west solar quadrant. A previously flaring solar
region AR3089 may return to the solar south-east limb at latitude
S23 on 19 Sep. This mid sized region remained magnetically complex
as it rotated off disk on 05-06 Sep. The 10MeV solar proton flux,
is below the 10PFU event level, but has been very mildly elevated
at around 1.7PFU, over the last few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 21101211
Cocos Island 5 31211210
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 4 21111221
Learmonth 4 21101311
Alice Springs 3 21101211
Gingin 3 31101200
Canberra 2 21100201
Hobart 2 21100101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 20000100
Casey 7 33310021
Mawson 8 52101101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 1021 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 20 G0, chance of G1
17 Sep 20 G0, chance of G1
18 Sep 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 15-Sep. An isolated G1 period was observed at Mawson
in the Antarctic region. Isolated G1 geomagnetic periods are
expected over 16-17-Sep due to a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 16-18 Sep, with mild degradations possible local night hours
for middle to high latitudes during 16-17 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40%-50%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 80 About 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Sep 80 About 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Sep 80 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-Sep were
more enhanced than expected. Regional MUFs are expected to be
mostly near to 15% above predicted monthly values during 16-18
Sep, with mildly degraded HF conditions possible during local
night hours and briefly after local dawn for southern region
Australia only, in association with an anticipated mild increase
in geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 24.1 p/cc Temp: 26200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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