[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 15 09:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1019UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Sep reached the ASWAS R1
level due to a minor M1 solar flare from AR3098 (N20W58, beta-gamma).
The slow rise flare had a very minor westward associated CME,
which is not considered geoeffective. This region also produced
several C-class flares, the largest a C7.2 at 14/0341UT. Solar
region AR3100 (S25E05, beta) produced a low level C2.7 class
flare at 14/0521UT. Solar region AR3102 (S28E56, beta), the presumed
return of previously flare active AR3088, was relatively quiet.
Along with these 3 numbered regions there are also 3 very minor
unnumbered spot groups. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 15-17 Sep. No significant Earth directed CMEs have
been observed. A very weak transient shock signature is evident
in solar wind parameters at 14/0625UT, possibly associated with
a CME on 09 Sep. Solar wind parameters were then more enhanced
and variable for the remainder of the UT day. The solar wind
has been light over 14-Sep, ranging from 284 to 352 km/sec. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -14 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to gradually increase over 15-16-Sep
due to the effects of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal
hole located in the northern solar hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 11211223
Cocos Island 5 11211222
Darwin 6 11211223
Townsville 9 12322233
Learmonth 6 12211232
Alice Springs 5 01211223
Gingin 5 11211222
Canberra 5 01211123
Hobart 5 01211123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 00112022
Casey 8 23321122
Mawson 6 31211222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1021 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 14 G0, chance of G1 periods late in the UT day
16 Sep 20 G0, with isolated G1 periods
17 Sep 20 G0, with isolated G1 periods
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 14-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 15-Sep, with a slight chance of
G1 conditions. Isolated G1 geomagnetic periods are expected over
16-17-Sep due to a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Sep Normal Fair-Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 15-17 Sep, with mild degradations possible local night hours
for middle to high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-35%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 75 About 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Sep 75 About 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Sep were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. Spread
F was observed during local night hours at Hobart, indicating
mildly degraded overnight HF conditions for the south-east Australian
region. Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly near to 15% above
predicted monthly values during 15-17 Sep, with mildly degraded
HF conditions possible during local night hours and briefly after
local dawn for southern region Australia only, in association
with an anticipated mild increase in geomagnetic activity from
a coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 26500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list