[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 September 22 issued 2331 UT on 13 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 14 09:31:01 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 12/2344UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Sep was at the R0, with
several high C-class flares. The largest were C9.2 and C9.5 flares
at 13/1516UT and 13/1536UT, respectively. An M1.8 flare occurred
at 12/2344UT. AR3098 (N20W46, beta-gamma) was responsible for
most of the flaring. There are currently seven numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3098 (N18W40, beta-gamma) has been
unstable, AR3100 (S24E22, beta) has grown in spot number and
AR3101 (N31W83, beta) has grown but is currently rotating off
the western limb. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
over 14-16 Sep. Two small filament eruptions can be observed
from AR3089 at 13/0539UT and 13/1458UT, and a third small filament
eruption can be seen near N15E25 at 13/0938UT in SDO imagery.
Three CMEs were observed, likely in association with the filament
eruptions. Analysis indicates that from the CME in the northwest
there is a slight chance there may be a weak glancing blow on
16-Sep. No other observed CMEs are considered geoeffective. The
solar wind has been light over 13-Sep, ranging from 370 to 295
km/s and is currently near 310 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -3 nT. There is a chance the solar wind
will become mildly elevated over 14-Sep due a possible weak glancing
blow from a CME first observed 09-Sep. The solar wind is expected
to be mild over 15-Sep, but is expected to increase on 16-Sep
due to the effects of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal
hole rotating into a geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 02101100
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 2 02101101
Townsville 3 12201111
Learmonth 2 02201100
Alice Springs 2 02101101
Gingin 1 01101100
Canberra 1 01101100
Hobart 2 01111200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 01010000
Casey 7 24311100
Mawson 4 02211003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2232 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 16 G0, slight chance of G1
15 Sep 14 G0
16 Sep 25 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 13-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 14-Sep, with a slight chance of
G1 conditions due to a possible weak impact from a CME first
observed 09-Sep. Minor geomagnetic disturbances may also happen
on 14-Sep due to an equatorial coronal hole, however confidence
is low. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 15-Sep, and
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 16-Sep due to a
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole rotating into
a geoeffective location.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 14-16 Sep, with mild degradations possible due to a combination
of high speed solar wind stream effects from a coronal hole and
possible weak glancing blows from recent CMEs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Sep were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. Sporadic-E
was observed in Darwin and Cocos Islands during local night.
Regional MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
on 14-16 Sep, with mild enhancements possible towards the start
of the period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 27800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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