[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 12 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 13 09:30:53 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Sep was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk and four unnumbered regions.
AR3100 (S25E28, beta) and AR3101 (N29W81, beta) have grown in
area, but AR3101 has decreased in complexity. AR3092 (S09W79,
alpha), AR3097 (S12W67, beta) and AR3098(N20W36, gamma) are all
unstable and AR3098 has the highest magnetic complexity. All
other regions are either stable or in decay. A new sunspot group
is rotating on to the disk near S27, yet to be named and classified.
This may be the return of AR3088, which previously produced M-class
flares. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
13-15 Sep. The proton flux was elevated from 12/0700UT, but has
not crossed S1 threshold levels and is currently declining. No
geoeffective CMEs have been observed. The solar wind has been
on a declining trend over 12-Sep, ranging from 436 to 342 km/s,
and is currently near 355 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +2 to -4 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain
near background levels over 13-Sep, with the possibility of a
weak increase over 14-15 Sep due to the combination of high speed
wind stream effects from a small coronal hole and a weak possible
glancing blow from a CME first observed 09-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11223010
Cocos Island 3 11122010
Darwin 5 22222011
Townsville 5 21223011
Learmonth 4 11223000
Alice Springs 4 12223000
Gingin 3 11222010
Canberra 5 11323000
Hobart 5 12323000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
Macquarie Island 13 02544000
Casey 5 22222021
Mawson 18 54333231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2112 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 8 G0
14 Sep 16 G0, chance of G1
15 Sep 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Macquarie Island and at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 13-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance
of G1 are expected on 14-Sep, due to a combination of a high
speed wind stream effect from a small coronal hole and a possible
weak glancing blow from a CME first observed 09-Sep. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 15-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 13-Sep. Mildly degraded conditions are possible over 14-15
Sep due to a combination of high speed wind stream effects from
a small coronal hole and a possible weak glancing blow from a
CME first observed on 09-Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 69 was issued on
12 September and is current for 12-13 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 12-Sep were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Townsville and the Cocos
Islands during local night. Spread-F was observed at Hobart and
Niue Island during local night. Regional MUFs are expected to
be near predicted values over 13-15 Sep, with mild enhancements
possible on 13-Sep during local day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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