[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 11 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 12 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 148/102 143/97
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Sep was at the R0 level,
with many C-class flares. There are currently seven numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3098 (N20W23, beta-gamma-delta),
AR3100 (S25E41, beta) and AR3101 (N29W68, beta) exhibited spot
development over the 24-hour period, AR3098 also increased in
magnetic complexity. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. An unnamed sunspot region is visible at around S17E62
with beta magnetic characteristics. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 12-14 Sep. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed. An east directed CME is visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A
imagery from 11/0536UT. Modelling confirms no geoeffective component.
A filament eruption is visible in H-Alpha and SDO imagery from
11/1236UT at around N03W03 in H-Alpha imagery and N10W25 in SDO
imagery. This event is likely associated with a C4.5 flare from
AR3098. No associated CME is visible in available coronagraph
imagery, further analysis will be performed when imagery becomes
available. The solar wind speed remained moderate over the UT
day, ranging between 493 and 413 km/s and is currently at around
440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain moderate
over 12-13 Sep, with the possibility of a decline towards background
levels. An increase in the solar wind speed is expected on 14-Sep,
due to a combination of high speed wind stream effects from an
equatorial coronal hole moving towards a geoeffective position
and a possible glancing blow from a CME first observed on 09-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22212322
Cocos Island 6 22211312
Darwin 7 22212312
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 8 22213322
Alice Springs 7 22212322
Gingin 8 22212332
Canberra 5 11222221
Hobart 7 22222321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
Macquarie Island 8 11133321
Casey 15 34432322
Mawson 29 24333654
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 3132 4432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 8 G0
13 Sep 8 G0
14 Sep 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 and G2 at
Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 12-13 Sep,
with the possibility of unsettled conditions due to waning coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 14-Sep, due to a combination
of high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole moving towards a geoeffective position and a possible glancing
blow from a CME first observed on 09-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 12-13
Sep, with brief periods of mildly degraded conditions possible
at high latitudes during local night hours. Mildly degraded conditions
are possible on 14-Sep due to a combination of high speed wind
stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole moving towards
a geoeffective position and a possible glancing blow from a CME
first observed on 09-Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11-Sep were
mostly near predicted monthly values for the Australian region,
with enhanced conditions observed at Darwin during local day
and brief periods of depression observed in the Southern Australian
region during local night. Spread-F was observed at Hobart and
sporadic E was observed at Darwin and Cocos Islands, all during
local night. Regional MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 12-13 Sep, with mild depressions possible
at high latitudes during local night. Mildly depressed conditions
are possible on 14-Sep due to a combination of high speed wind
stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole moving towards
a geoeffective position and a possible glancing blow from a CME
first observed on 09-Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 83000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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