[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 10 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 11 09:30:52 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 126/79 123/76
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Sep was at the R0 level,
with only C-class flares. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3098 (N16W06, beta), AR3100
(S25E54, alpha) and AR3101 (N29W56, beta) exhibited spot development
over the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0
level over 11-13 Sep, with a chance of R1. No geoeffective CMEs
were observed. A southward CME is visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A
imagery from 10/0524UT. Modelling indicates this CME has no earth-directed
component. A filament eruption is visible in GOES SUVI and H-Alpha
imagery from 10/1905UT around N10W10. No CME is visible in available
coronagraph imagery, further analysis will be performed when
more imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed increased
over the UT day, ranging between 515 and 393 km/s and is currently
at around 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +5 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain moderate
over 11-12 Sep due to high speed wind stream effects from a newly
appeared coronal hole in a geoeffective position. There is a
possibility of a decrease in solar wind speed on 13-Sep as coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 22233321
Cocos Island 7 22222321
Darwin 8 22232321
Townsville 9 22233222
Learmonth 10 22233331
Alice Springs 9 22233321
Gingin 9 21223331
Canberra 8 22223321
Hobart 11 21333331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Macquarie Island 18 22345431
Casey 17 35332332
Mawson 28 34333365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 4234 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 9 G0
12 Sep 9 G0
13 Sep 9 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
at all sites and a period of G2 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 11-13 Sep, with the possibility of unsettled
conditions due to a newly appeared coronal hole in a geoeffective
position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 11-13
Sep. Mildly degraded conditions are possible at high latitudes
during local night hours due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-Sep were
mostly near predicted monthly values for the Australian region,
with mild depressions observed in the southern Australian region
during local night. Spread-F was observed in Hobart, during local
night, and sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Townsville and
Learmonth, during local night. Regional MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 11-13 Sep, with mild depressions
possible due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects,
particularly at high latitudes during local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 323000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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