[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 09 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 10 09:31:00 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 127/80 127/80 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Sep was at the R0 level,
with only C-class flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3098 (N16E07, beta) exhibited spot
development over the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. There are 3 unnumbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. One stable region with alpha magnetic
characteristics at N12E37 and two, newly appeared, regions with
beta magnetic characteristics at N12E47 and S25E55. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 10-12 Sep. A slow, faint
western CME is visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from
09/0923UT. Modelling suggests the chance of a glancing impact
on 14-Sep at around 14/1000UT +/- 12 hours. A filament lift off
is visible in H-Alpha and SDO imagery from 09/1455UT at around
N17W25. No associated CME is currently visible in available imagery.
No other geoeffective CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed
declined over the UT day, ranging between 540 and 403 km/s and
is currently at around 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -7 nT. A period of -Bz (southward) occurred
from 09/0600UT to 09/1130UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to decline towards background levels over 10-12 Sep,
with the possibility of an increase due to the appearance of
a small coronal hole in a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 21242202
Cocos Island 5 11232101
Darwin 7 22232202
Townsville 8 21242212
Learmonth 7 21242201
Alice Springs 6 21232202
Gingin 7 21242201
Canberra 8 21242202
Hobart 7 20242202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Macquarie Island 23 21274101
Casey 10 33332122
Mawson 28 54343316
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18 2443 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 8 G0
11 Sep 8 G0
12 Sep 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
and G2 at Mawson and an isolated period of G3 at Macquarie Island.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 10-12 Sep, with the
possibility of unsettled conditions due to a newly appeared coronal
hole in a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 10-12
Sep. Mildly degraded conditions are possible at high latitudes
during local night hours due to coronal hole effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 09-Sep were
mostly near predicted monthly values for the Australian region,
with a brief mildly depressed period during local night, particularly
at high latitudes. Spread-F was observed in Hobart and sporadic
E was observed at Cocos Islands. Regional MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 10-12 Sep, with mild depressions
possible due to coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 403000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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