[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 September 22 issued 2331 UT on 08 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 9 09:31:04 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Sep             10 Sep             11 Sep
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Sep was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flares. There are currently five numbered 
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3098 (N16E20, beta) has 
shown rapid growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable 
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level 
over 09-11 Sep. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed. A westward 
CME was observed from 08/0548UT but is considered to be a farside 
event. The solar wind was elevated over 08-Sep, but with a declining 
trend and ranged from 575-489 km/s. The solar wind is currently 
near 500 km/s, and is expected to continue to decline to background 
levels over 09-11 Sep as coronal hole effects abate. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. Bz has 
been southward since 08/2155UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: G0

Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23222323
      Cocos Island        10   23222323
      Darwin               9   23222223
      Townsville          11   23322323
      Learmonth           11   23222333
      Alice Springs        9   23222223
      Gingin              12   23222334
      Canberra            11   23322323
      Hobart              12   23332323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    20   22454333
      Casey               16   34333333
      Mawson              44   26433457

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   2233 3452     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Sep     8    G0
10 Sep     5    G0
11 Sep     5    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 08-Sep. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in 
the Antarctic region, with Mawson experiencing G2 and G1 conditions 
and Macquarie Island experiencing an isolated period of G1. G0 
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 09-11 Sep.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 09-11 
Sep. Mildly degraded conditions are possible at high latitudes 
on 09-Sep during local night hours as coronal hole effects abate.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Sep    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      53
Sep      68
Oct      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Sep were 
mostly near predicted monthly values for the Australian region. 
Spread-F was observed in Hobart and depressions were observed 
at Darwin and Hobart during local night hours. Regional MUFs 
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 09-11 Sep. 
Mild depressions are possible during local night hours at high 
latitude regions on 09-Sep as coronal hole effects abate.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 553 km/sec  Density:    9.5 p/cc  Temp:   559000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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