[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 September 22 issued 2331 UT on 08 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 9 09:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Sep was at the R0 level,
with no significant flares. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3098 (N16E20, beta) has
shown rapid growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level
over 09-11 Sep. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed. A westward
CME was observed from 08/0548UT but is considered to be a farside
event. The solar wind was elevated over 08-Sep, but with a declining
trend and ranged from 575-489 km/s. The solar wind is currently
near 500 km/s, and is expected to continue to decline to background
levels over 09-11 Sep as coronal hole effects abate. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. Bz has
been southward since 08/2155UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 23222323
Cocos Island 10 23222323
Darwin 9 23222223
Townsville 11 23322323
Learmonth 11 23222333
Alice Springs 9 23222223
Gingin 12 23222334
Canberra 11 23322323
Hobart 12 23332323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
Macquarie Island 20 22454333
Casey 16 34333333
Mawson 44 26433457
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 2233 3452
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 8 G0
10 Sep 5 G0
11 Sep 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Sep. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with Mawson experiencing G2 and G1 conditions
and Macquarie Island experiencing an isolated period of G1. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 09-11 Sep.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 09-11
Sep. Mildly degraded conditions are possible at high latitudes
on 09-Sep during local night hours as coronal hole effects abate.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Sep were
mostly near predicted monthly values for the Australian region.
Spread-F was observed in Hobart and depressions were observed
at Darwin and Hobart during local night hours. Regional MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 09-11 Sep.
Mild depressions are possible during local night hours at high
latitude regions on 09-Sep as coronal hole effects abate.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 559000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list