[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 07 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 8 09:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Sep was at the R0 level,
with no significant flares. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3092 (S11W07, beta), AR3096
(N18E60, beta) and AR3097 (S12E03, beta-gamma) have grown and
AR3094 (N20E17, beta) is unstable. An unnumbered region (N16E38,
beta) has been unstable. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R0 level, with a chance of R1 over 08-10 Sep. No geoeffective
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind was elevated over 07-Sep,
ranging from 608-533 km/s and is currently near 540 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT,
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -5 nT.
Bz was southward between 07/1420-07/1635UT. The solar wind is
expected to remain elevated over 07-Sep due to high speed wind
stream effects from a coronal hole, beginning to decline over
08-09 Sep as coronal hole effects abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 22224331
Cocos Island 9 22223330
Darwin 10 22224321
Townsville 9 22223331
Learmonth 16 32325430
Alice Springs 10 12224331
Gingin 12 32224331
Canberra 9 22223331
Hobart 12 21334331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
Macquarie Island 15 22344430
Casey 16 34432422
Mawson 22 44533341
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19 4433 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 8 G0
09 Sep 5 G0
10 Sep 5 G0
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region, with an isolated period of G1 at Learmonth.
Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with an isolated period of G1 observed at Mawson. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 08-10 Sep, with unsettled
conditions possible on 08-Sep due to ongoing coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 08-10
Sep. Mildly degraded conditions are possible at high latitudes
on 08-Sep due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Sep were
near predicted monthly values for the Australian region. Spread-F
was observed in Brisbane and Hobart during local night. Sporadic
E was observed at the Cocos Islands and Darwin during local night.
Regional MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 08-10 Sep. Mildly depressions are possible during local
night at high latitude regions on 08-Sep due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 579000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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