[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 September 22 issued 2331 UT on 06 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 7 09:31:05 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 122/75 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Sep was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3096 (S20E71, beta) has
recently rotated on to the solar disk. All regions are either
stable or in decay. There are two unnumbered regions at S10E17
and S23E60, both with alpha magnetic characteristics. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level, with a slight chance of R1
over 07-09 Sep. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed. A large
filament, approximately 60 degrees long, is visible on the solar
disk between S15-S37 and E18-W22. It is between AR3092 (S11E04,
alpha) and AR3093 (S27E09, alpha). This filament is rotating
towards a geoeffective position. The solar wind speed remained
elevated over 06-Sep, ranging from 622 - 531 km/s, and is currently
fluctuating near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 07-08 Sep due to high speed wind stream
effects from an equatorial coronal hole. Solar wind speed is
expected to begin to decline on 08-Sep and continue to decline
over 09-Sep as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 33222322
Cocos Island 9 32222322
Darwin 10 33222322
Townsville 12 33322323
Learmonth 12 43223322
Alice Springs 10 33222322
Gingin 12 33223332
Canberra 10 33322222
Hobart 12 33323322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Macquarie Island 18 43334432
Casey 19 35433233
Mawson 53 66433566
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 50 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 35 5545 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 12 G0, chance of G1
08 Sep 8 G0
09 Sep 5 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 6 September
and is current for 6-7 Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 06-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with one period
of G1 at Casey and several periods of G2 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 07-09 Sep, with a chance of G1 on
07-Sep and a chance of unsettled conditions on 08-Sep due to
on going coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 07-09 Sep. Mildly degraded conditions are possible at high
latitudes on 07-08 Sep due to ongoing coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 5 September
and is current for 5-7 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 06-Sep were near predicted monthly values for the Australian
region. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night. Sporadic
E was observed at Darwin and Hobart during local night. Regional
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 07-09
Sep, with mild depressions possible on 07-08 Sep due to ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 570 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 449000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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