[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 05 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 6 09:30:56 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1806UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Sep was at the R1 level,
with an M1.0 flare occurring at 05/1805UT, originating from AR3089
(S23W86, beta). There are currently five numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3094 (N22E41, beta) and AR3095 (S14W44,
beta) showed spot development over 05-Sep. AR3089, the most active
region, currently appears stable and is rotating off the solar
disk. An unnamed region has appeared at around S13E28 with beta
magnetic characteristics. All other regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level,
with a chance of R1 over 06-08 Sep. No geoeffective CMEs have
been observed. A halo CME is visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A
imagery from 05/1636UT. This is considered a far-side event and
is not considered geoeffective. A large filament, approximately
60 degrees long, is visible on the solar disk between S15-S33
and E35W05. It is between AR3092 (S11E16, alpha) and AR3093 (S27E03,
beta). This filament is currently rotating into a geoeffective
position. The solar wind speed decreased over 05-Sep, ranging
from 676 - 524 km/s, and is currently fluctuating near 570 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -7
nT. Bz was southward for much of the past 24-hour period. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 06-08 Sep
due to high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole currently in a geoeffective position. A decline is expected
on 08-Sep as the high speed wind stream effects abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: G1
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 22 33354433
Cocos Island 16 23-43432
Darwin 17 33344332
Townsville 20 33354333
Learmonth 24 33354533
Alice Springs 19 23354333
Gingin 23 33353533
Canberra 16 33343333
Hobart 19 33344433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Macquarie Island 42 45565534
Casey 23 45433433
Mawson 90 66564487
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 68 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 33
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 60 5666 5655
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 20 G0-G1
07 Sep 18 G0, chance of G1
08 Sep 10 G0
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region for one period on UT day 05-Sep. G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed for two isolated periods at Learmonth and Gingin.
G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed for one period at Casey,
G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed at Macquarie Island,
with one period of G2, G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
at Mawson, with one period of G4. The source of the geomagnetic
storming is an equatorial coronal hole high speed wind stream
combined with an impact from a CME first observed on 02-Sep.
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 06-Sep, due to ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. G0, with a chance
of G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 07-Sep and G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 08-Sep as coronal hole effects abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to degraded HF propagation conditions are expected
over 06-07 Sep, due to recent geomagnetic storming. Degraded
conditions are more likely in high latitude regions. Normal HF
propagation conditions are expected on 08-Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 5 September
and is current for 5-7 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 05-Sep were mostly near predicted monthly values for
the Northern Australian region. MUFs were depressed by up to
20% for the Southern Australian region during local day and near
predicted monthly values during local night. Sporadic-E was observed
across the Australian region, mostly during local night. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart during local night. Regional MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 06-08 Sep,
with the possibility of mild depressions in the Southern Australian
region due to recent geomagnetic storming.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 648 km/sec Density: 10.9 p/cc Temp: 710000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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