[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 04 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 5 09:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 126/79 122/75 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Sep was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3089 (S23W71, beta-delta)
has been had unstable growth, but has only produced C-class flares.
AR3093 (S27E24, beta) has been unstable. All other regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 05-07 Sep. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed increased over 04-Sep, ranging from 513
- 679 km/s, and is currently near 660 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -12 nT. Bz was southward for much of the
past 24-hour period. The solar wind is expected to remain elevated
over 05-06 Sep due to the combination of coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects and an anticipated weak glancing blow from
a CME first observed 02-Sep. The solar wind may begin to decline
by the end of the period as coronal hole effects abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: G2
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 25 34454433
Cocos Island 16 33334422
Darwin 22 33454423
Townsville 29 44455433
Learmonth 35 44465533
Alice Springs 26 34455423
Gingin 33 44464533
Canberra 29 34464433
Hobart 39 34474533
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
Macquarie Island 63 46675644
Casey 24 54443432
Mawson 111 87665747
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 58 (Unsettled)
Canberra 73 (Active)
Hobart 102 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 65
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 24 5444 4334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 28 G1, chance of G2
06 Sep 20 G0, chance of G1
07 Sep 18 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 2 September
and is current for 3-5 Sep. Mostly unsettled G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 04-Sep, with
most sites experiencing some G1 conditions. Learmonth, Gingin
and Canberra experiencing a period of G2, and Hobart experienced
a period of G3. G0 to G4 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region on UT day 04-Sep. G0 were observed at
Casey, while G3 was observed at Macquarie Island and G4 was observed
at Mawson. The source of the geomagnetic storming is an equatorial
coronal hole high speed wind stream. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 05-Sep, with a chance of G2 due to
the combination of ongoing coronal hole effects and an anticipated
weak glancing blow from a CME first observed 02-Sep. G0, with
a chance of G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 06-07
Sep as coronal hole effects abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Fair Fair-poor Poor
06 Sep Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
07 Sep Normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Normal to degraded conditions are possible over 05-07
Sep, due to recent geomagnetic storming. Degraded conditions
are more likely in high latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 35 20-30% depressed to near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 40 15-20% depressed to near predicted monthly values
to
07 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on 4 September
and is current for 6-7 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 04-Sep were mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhanced
conditions were observed in the northern Australian region at
local night. Sporadic-E was observed at Brisbane, Perth, Norfolk
Island and Nuie Island at local dusk. Spread-F was observed at
Hobart and Townsville and local night. Regional MUFs are expected
to ne near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed over 05-07
Sep, due to recent geomagnetic storming.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 213000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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