[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 03 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 4 09:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 122/75 122/75 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Sep was at the R0 level,
with C-class flaring only. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3089 (S23W57, beta-delta)
is unstable but has only produced C-class flares. AR3093 (S27E69,
beta) is unstable. All other regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
04-06 Sep. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar
wind speed increased over 03-Sep, ranging from 397 - 580 km/s,
and is currently near 540 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +10 to -9 nT. Bz was southward for several periods;
the most recent period from 03/1735 until 03/2140UT. The solar
wind is expected to stay enhanced over 04-06 Sep due to the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream and a possible
weak glancing blow from a CME first observed on 02-Sep. The solar
wind may begin to decline on 06-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 15 33334323
Cocos Island 11 33223223
Darwin 12 23324223
Townsville 14 23334323
Learmonth 16 33334333
Alice Springs 14 33234323
Gingin 18 33334334
Canberra 12 23233323
Hobart 15 23343333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
Macquarie Island 24 33455333
Casey 19 44434223
Mawson 53 65444475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 1012 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 20 G0, chance of G1
05 Sep 20 G0, chance of G1
06 Sep 16 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 2 September
and is current for 3-5 Sep. G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australia region on UT day 03-Sep, but most sites experienced
an isolated period of unsettled (under G1 threshold level) geomagnetic
activity. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with Mawson having a period of G2 and a
period of G3. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
04-06 Sep, with a chance of G1 over 04-05 Sep due to the combination
of high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole high speed
wind stream and possible weak glancing blow from a CME first
observed on 02-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are possible
over 04-06 Sep, due to the combined effects from a coronal hole
high speed wind stream and possible weak glancing blow from a
CME first observed on 02-Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Sep were
near predicted monthly values. Degraded conditions were observed
in Darwin during local night. Sporadic-E was observed at most
northern Australian sites and Cocos Islands. Regional MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
over 04-06 Sep, due to the combined effects from a coronal hole
high speed wind stream and possible weak glancing blow from a
CME first observed 02-Sep. .
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 88300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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