[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 02 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 3 09:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 124/77 124/77 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Sep was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently three numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3089 (S23W44, gamma) has
shown spot growth and an increase in magnetic complexity, but
has been quiet so far. AR3092 (S09E57, beta) is stable and AR3093
(S27E44, beta-gamma) is unstable. There is an unnumbered region
rotating on to the disk at N22E84 that is likely a returning
region, however it did not produce any significant flares last
rotation. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
03-05 Sep. A filament eruption was observed in H-alpha imagery
from 02/1836UT in the southeast quadrant, and a CME is observed
coming from this region in LASCO imagery from 02/1932UT. The
CME may have a mild glancing blow to Earth on 05-Sep. The solar
wind speed decreased and then increased over UT day 02-Sep, ranging
from 498 - 426 km/s, and is currently near 433 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to increase over 03-05 Sep due the combination
of a coronal hole high speed wind stream effect and anticipated
mild impact from a CME expected to arrive on 05-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 11222112
Cocos Island 4 11211112
Darwin 5 12222112
Townsville 5 11222112
Learmonth 5 12222112
Alice Springs 4 01222012
Gingin 3 11212011
Canberra 4 11222012
Hobart 4 11213002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 00124001
Casey 7 22323012
Mawson 17 43232135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2412 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 20 G0, chance of G1
04 Sep 20 G0, chance of G1
05 Sep 20 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 2 September
and is current for 3-5 Sep. G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 02-Sep. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 03-05 Sep, with a
chance of G1 conditions over 03-04 Sep due to the combination
of high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole and an
anticipated mild impact from a CME expected to arrive on 05-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal to degraded HF conditions are possible on 03-04
Sep, particularly during local night, due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects. Mildly degraded conditions possible
on 05-Sep as an anticipated mild impact from a CME is expected
to arrive.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
04 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
05 Sep 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Sep were
near predicted monthly values during local day and up to 15%
depressed during local night in the northern Australian region.
Spread-F was observed at Perth and Learmonth in the local night
and dawn. Sporadic-E was observed at Cocos Islands. Degraded
conditions were observed in Darwin during local night. Regional
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
to 20% depressed over 03-05 Sep, due to some high speed wind
stream effects from a coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 249000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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