[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 01 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 2 09:30:58 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 116/68 118/70 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Sep was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3086 (S22W76, beta) reappeared,
AR3089 (S23W33, beta) showed some trailer spot development and
AR3091 (N15W16, alpha) decayed. AR3092 (S09E69, beta) appears
stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
02-04 Sep, with a chance of R1. No geoeffective CMEs are visible
in available imagery. The solar wind increased and then declined
over UT day 01-Sep, ranging from 601-472 km/s, and is currently
around 480 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +7 to -7 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue to decline
over 02-Sep, before increasing over 03-04 Sep due to high speed
wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole rotating
towards a geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 23221011
Cocos Island 2 22110010
Darwin 5 23221001
Townsville 6 23221111
Learmonth 5 23221110
Alice Springs 5 23221001
Gingin 4 22220110
Canberra 4 13221001
Hobart 4 23221000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
Macquarie Island 4 13221000
Casey 14 54331111
Mawson 27 45532353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 11 3322 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 5 G0
03 Sep 20 G0, chance of G1
04 Sep 20 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Sep. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 at Casey,
and three periods of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are mostly expected over 02-04 Sep, with a chance of G1 conditions
on 03-04 Sep due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
03 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal to mildly degraded propagation conditions are
expected on 02-Sep. Degraded HF conditions are possible on 03-04
Sep, particularly during local night, due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on
1 September and is current for 1-2 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 01-Sep were near predicted monthly values during
local day and up to 30% depressed during local night across the
Australian region. Spread-F was observed in the Southern Australian
region during local night. Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed over 02-04 Sep,
with the depressed conditions most likely during local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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