[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 01 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 2 09:30:58 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Sep             03 Sep             04 Sep
Activity     R0, chance of R1	R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   116/68             118/70             118/70

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Sep was at the R0 level, 
with several C-class flares. There are currently four numbered 
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3086 (S22W76, beta) reappeared, 
AR3089 (S23W33, beta) showed some trailer spot development and 
AR3091 (N15W16, alpha) decayed. AR3092 (S09E69, beta) appears 
stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 
02-04 Sep, with a chance of R1. No geoeffective CMEs are visible 
in available imagery. The solar wind increased and then declined 
over UT day 01-Sep, ranging from 601-472 km/s, and is currently 
around 480 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength 
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was +7 to -7 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue to decline 
over 02-Sep, before increasing over 03-04 Sep due to high speed 
wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole rotating 
towards a geoeffective location.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: G0

Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   23221011
      Cocos Island         2   22110010
      Darwin               5   23221001
      Townsville           6   23221111
      Learmonth            5   23221110
      Alice Springs        5   23221001
      Gingin               4   22220110
      Canberra             4   13221001
      Hobart               4   23221000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     4   13221000
      Casey               14   54331111
      Mawson              27   45532353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              45   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             11   3322 2224     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Sep     5    G0
03 Sep    20    G0, chance of G1
04 Sep    20    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 01-Sep. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in 
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 at Casey, 
and three periods of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are mostly expected over 02-04 Sep, with a chance of G1 conditions 
on 03-04 Sep due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Fair           Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
04 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Normal to mildly degraded propagation conditions are 
expected on 02-Sep. Degraded HF conditions are possible on 03-04 
Sep, particularly during local night, due to coronal hole high 
speed wind stream effects.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Sep    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      53
Sep      68
Oct      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Sep    50    Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep    50    Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 
1 September and is current for 1-2 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 01-Sep were near predicted monthly values during 
local day and up to 30% depressed during local night across the 
Australian region. Spread-F was observed in the Southern Australian 
region during local night. Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed over 02-04 Sep, 
with the depressed conditions most likely during local night.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 521 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:   192000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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