[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 31 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 1 09:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Aug was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There is currently one numbered
sunspot region on the solar disk. AR3089 (S23W19, beta-gamma-delta)
showed some trailer spot decay, but remains large and magnetically
complex. There is one unnamed sunspot region on the solar disk
at around N11W3 with a beta magnetic classification. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 01-03 Sep. Several CMEs
have been observed but none are considered geoeffective. The
solar wind declined over UT day 31-Aug, ranging from 617-482
km/s, and is currently fluctuating near 500 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -8 nT. There is an ongoing
period of intermittent -Bz from 31/1915UT to time of writing.
The solar wind is expected to continue to decline over 01-02
Sep, before increasing on 03-Sep due to high speed wind stream
effects from an equatorial coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective
location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 22122213
Cocos Island 6 22112213
Darwin 8 32122213
Townsville 10 32233213
Learmonth 8 22123223
Alice Springs 7 22122213
Gingin 9 22122224
Canberra 7 22222213
Hobart 8 22222223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
Macquarie Island 9 22233222
Casey 17 34323225
Mawson 43 46353327
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 2423 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 10 G0, chance of G1
02 Sep 5 G0
03 Sep 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31-Aug. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 and G2 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are mostly expected over 01-03 Sep,
with a chance of G1 conditions on 01-Sep and 03-Sep due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible on 01-03
Sep, particularly during local night.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31-Aug were
near predicted monthly values during local day and up to 25%
depressed during local night. Spread-F was observed across the
Australian region during local night. Regional MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed over
01-03 Sep, with the depressed conditions most likely during local
night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 10.8 p/cc Temp: 480000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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