[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 September 22 issued 2330 UT on 17 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 18 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1319UT possible lower European
M1.9 1339UT possible lower European
M2.6 2041UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Sep was at the R1 level,
with three M-class flares. The M1.0 flare occurred at 17/1320UT,
followed by an M1.9 flare at 17/1340UT, and an M2.5 flare occurred
at 17/2042UT. All flaring activity originated from AR3098, which
is currently over the western limb. There are currently three
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3100 (S25W35, beta)
and AR3102 (S29E17, beta) have grown and AR3103 (S16W15, beta)
has decayed. Solar activity is expected to be at R0 levels over
18-20 Sep, with a chance of R1. A filament eruption was observed
in SDO imagery from 17/1301UT from AR3098, over the western limb.
At 17/1336UT a CME can be observed in LASCO imagery from the
northwest quadrant, likely associated with the filament eruption
and M1 flare from AR3098. A filament liftoff occurred near AR3100
at 17/1525UT in the southwest. A faint CME was observed in LASCO
imagery from 17/1924UT in the southwest quadrant, possibly associated
with this filament liftoff from AR3100. Solar wind on UT day
17-Sep was light, ranging from 317 to 387 km/s, and is currently
near 380 km/s but has a sporadic trend. The solar wind speed
is expected to mostly remain near background levels over 18-20,
with a slight chance to increase on 18-Sep due to a possible
glancing blow from a CME first observed on 16-Sep. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +10 to -7 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11111102
Cocos Island 2 11110101
Darwin 2 11110102
Townsville 3 11111102
Learmonth 3 11111102
Alice Springs 2 11010102
Gingin 2 11100002
Canberra 2 11011002
Hobart 3 11112002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 01003001
Casey 12 34422112
Mawson 10 22111035
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1101 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 24 G0-G1
19 Sep 20 G0, slight chance of G1
20 Sep 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 17-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are predominantly expected on 18-Sep, with isolated periods of
G1 towards the end of the UT day, due to a possible glancing
blow from a CME first observed on 16-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 19-20 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 18-19 Sep, with mild degradations possible due to a possible
glancing blow from a CME first observed on 16-Sep. Mostly normal
HF propagation conditions are expected on 20-Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 53
Sep 68
Oct 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on
17 September and is current for 18-19 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 17-Sep were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 30% enhanced, particularly at local night hours. Sporadic-E
was observed at most northern region sites during local night
hours. Regional MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values on 18-19 Sep, with mild depressions possible during local
night due to a possible glancing blow from a CME first observed
on 16-Sep. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
on 20-Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 51500 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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