[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 29 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 30 10:32:00 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 132/86 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several low-level C-class flares. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3135 (N28E56,
beta) has shown growth over the 24-hour period. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 30-Oct to 01-Nov. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Oct
increased, ranging from 515 to 615 km/s, and is currently near
530 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 12 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+9 to -11. Several short periods of sustained southward IMF conditions
were observed throughout the UT day. The solar wind speed is
expected to increase over 30-Oct to 01-Nov due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: G1
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 32443332
Cocos Island 11 32332322
Darwin 12 32432322
Townsville 17 33443332
Learmonth 17 32443333
Alice Springs 15 33443222
Gingin 19 32453333
Canberra 15 33442232
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 33 34664421
Casey 26 55443333
Mawson 66 56654467
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 90
Planetary 16 2222 2544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 16 G0, chance G1
31 Oct 16 G0, chance G1
01 Nov 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 29 October
and is current for 29-30 Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on 29-Oct, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Gingin. Mostly G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 30-31 Oct, with a chance of G1 due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 01-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 30-Oct to 01-Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, particularly
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Oct were
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in Northern Australian
regions. Spread F was observed during local night at Perth. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 30-Oct
to 01-Nov. Mild degradations are possible due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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