[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 28 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 29 10:31:28 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 128/81 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several low-level C-class flares. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3131 (N25E19,
beta) is the largest sunspot region and has shown minor growth
in its trailer spots. AR3135 (N28E70, beta) recently appeared
on the solar disk and has exhibited spot development over the
24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
29-31 Oct. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar
wind speed on UT day 28-Oct increased, ranging from 350 to 565
km/s, and is currently near 500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +11 to -10. A period of sustained southward IMF
conditions was observed from 28/1400UT to 28/1605UT. The solar
wind speed is expected to increase over 29-31 Oct due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: G1
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 12223433
Cocos Island 7 11212323
Darwin 11 12223423
Townsville 12 22223433
Learmonth 15 22223533
Alice Springs 12 12223433
Gingin 14 22223434
Canberra 12 12223433
Hobart 5 12------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
Macquarie Island 24 22235642
Casey 20 34533333
Mawson 29 23323556
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 83 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2122 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 20 G0-G1
30 Oct 16 G0, chance G1
31 Oct 10 G0
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region on 28-Oct, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Learmonth. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G2 observed at Mawson
and Macquarie Island. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 29-Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on
30-Oct due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 31-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 29-31 Oct, with mildly degraded conditions possible on 29-30
Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, particularly
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Oct were
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night at Hobart. Sporadic E was observed during local night at
Cocos Island. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 29-31 Oct, with degradations possible over 29-30
Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 85100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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