[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 27 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 28 10:31:30 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3130 (S25W48,
beta), AR3132 (S09W45, beta) and AR3133 (N30E50, beta) exhibited
spot development over the 24-hour period. AR3131 (N25E32, beta)
showed some trailer spot decay, whilst AR3126 (S10W79, beta)
rotated off the solar disk over the course of 27-Oct. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 28-30 Oct. No geoeffective
CMEs were observed. Two large CMEs are visible in the South and
West from 26/2124UT and 26/2148UT in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
respectively. No corresponding on disk activity is visible and
they are considered far side events and not geoeffective. The
solar wind speed on UT day 27-Oct increased, ranging from 348
to 473 km/s, and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -7. A sustained period of negative Bz occurred
from 27/1015 to 27/1350. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain moderately elevated on 28-Oct, before increasing over
29-30 Oct due to high speed wind stream effects from a coronal
hole which is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position
on 29-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22233322
Cocos Island 6 12122321
Darwin 8 22132322
Townsville 10 22233322
Learmonth 9 22232331
Alice Springs 9 22232322
Gingin 12 22233431
Canberra 9 12233322
Hobart 9 12233322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
Macquarie Island 14 02245312
Casey 21 35533322
Mawson 13 33233332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 83
Planetary 4 0000 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 8 G0
29 Oct 20 G0-G1
30 Oct 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 27-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed at
Mawson and periods of G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
at Macquarie Island and Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 28-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 29-Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on
30-Oct due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 28-30 Oct, with mildly degraded conditions possible on 29-30
Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, particularly
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27-Oct were
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night at Hobart and sporadic E was observed during local night
at Learmonth and Cocos Islands. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 28-30 Oct, with a chance of depressions
at higher latitudes over 29-30 Oct due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 57900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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