[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 26 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 27 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 118/70 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Oct was at the R0 level,
with two C-class flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR3130 (S25W35, beta), AR3131
(N21E44, beta) and AR3133 (N28E61, beta) exhibited spot development
over the 24-hour period. The other sunspot regions are in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 27-29 Oct.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed. A small filament lift off
is visible in H-alpha and SDO imagery from 25/2338UT at around
S25W41, no corresponding CME is visible in available imagery.
A series of west directed CMEs are visible in SOHO and STEREO-A
coronagraph imagery from 26/1024UT. These are considered far
side events and are not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on
UT day 26-Oct declined, ranging from 389 to 337 km/s, and is
currently near 360 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -5. The solar wind speed is expected to
increase on 27-Oct due to high speed wind stream effects from
a small coronal hole moving into a geoeffective position. A further
increase in wind speed is expected on 29-Oct due to high speed
wind stream effects from a large equatorial coronal hole which
is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 29-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 11102223
Cocos Island 3 11001122
Darwin 5 11101223
Townsville 5 11102223
Learmonth 5 11102223
Alice Springs 4 11101213
Gingin 4 00102223
Canberra 3 11101212
Hobart 4 11102212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 00002312
Casey 12 34322123
Mawson 13 22112254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 172
Planetary 3 0011 0211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 10 G0
28 Oct 8 G0
29 Oct 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 26-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region on 26-Oct, with the exception of an isolated
period of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 27-28 Oct, with a chance of unsettled conditions due to
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects on 27-Oct. G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 29-Oct due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 27-29
Oct, with mildly degraded conditions possible on 29-Oct due to
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-Oct were
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed overnight
at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 27-29 Oct, with a chance of depressions at higher latitudes
on 29-Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 81400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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