[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 25 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 26 10:31:13 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 116/68 114/65 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Oct was at the R0 level,
with two low level C-class flares. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3133 (N28E72, beta)
produced both C-class flares and appears stable. AR3126 (S11W65,
beta) and AR3131 (N23E60, beta) have both exhibited spot development
over the 24-hour period. AR3130 (S25W22, beta) has shown minor
growth in its trailer spots. AR3132 (S09W18, alpha) recently
appeared on the solar disk and is stable. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 26-28 Oct. A slow west-directed CME
was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 25/0324UT.
No obvious on-disk source was observed with this CME and is therefore
considered a farside event and not geoeffective. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 25-Oct declined,
ranging from 380 to 465 km/s, and is currently near 380 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -4.
The solar wind speed is expected to decline on 26-Oct due to
waning coronal effects, then increase on 27-Oct due to a small
coronal hole moving into a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11110300
Cocos Island 2 11100200
Darwin 3 11110301
Townsville 5 21111311
Learmonth 3 10110301
Alice Springs 3 11110300
Gingin 3 10110300
Canberra 3 10110300
Hobart 3 11210300
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 00220300
Casey 10 34321221
Mawson 7 22222311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 204
Planetary 5 2221 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 10 G0
27 Oct 6 G0
28 Oct 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on 25-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 26-28 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 26-28
Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 25-Oct were
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed overnight
at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 26-28 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 284000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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