[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 24 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 25 10:31:05 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently three numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3126 (S11W51, beta)
was responsible for the majority of the flaring activity and
has exhibited growth over the 24-hour period. AR3130 (S25W08,
beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots. AR3131 (N23E74,
beta) has recently rotated onto the solar disk and appears stable.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 25-27 Oct.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A pair of coronal
holes are visible in the northern hemisphere, one of which is
now crossing the central meridian and is expected to influence
the solar wind speed in the coming days. The solar wind speed
on UT day 24-Oct declined, ranging from 470 to 580 km/s, and
is currently near 485 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -7. The solar wind speed is expected to
decline over 25-26 Oct due to waning coronal effects, then increase
on 27-Oct due to a small coronal hole currently crossing the
central meridian.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22213001
Cocos Island 3 22211000
Darwin 5 31212011
Townsville 5 21223011
Learmonth 6 32223001
Alice Springs 5 22213001
Gingin 6 32213011
Canberra 4 22212001
Hobart 5 22213001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Macquarie Island 7 22234000
Casey 19 55423112
Mawson 19 34433115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 139
Planetary 12 2220 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 14 G0, chance G1
26 Oct 10 G0
27 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 21 October
and is current for 23-25 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on 24-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with a period
of G1 observed at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 25-27 Oct, with a chance of G1 on 25-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 25-27
Oct, with mildly degraded conditions possible for middle to high
latitudes on 25-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 55 Near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 24-Oct were
near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced in Northern Australian
regions. Spread F was observed overnight at Hobart. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values over 25-27 Oct with
degraded HF conditions for the southern Australian region possible
on 25-Oct, particularly during local night hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 516 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 271000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list