[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 23 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 24 10:31:07 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 104/53 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Oct was at the R0 level,
due to minor C-class flares from recently emerging solar region
AR3130(S24E18, beta). There are five minor sunspot regions on
the solar disk. Two new small solar regions appear to be rotating
onto the solar disk at N12 and N23. At this stage these regions
do not appear that significant. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R0 level over 24-26 Oct. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed. A solar filament extending from S40E40 to S40E90 lifted
off the Sun 23/1230-1530UT in GONG H-alpha imagery (Chile), which
was associated with a faint narrow southeastward non Earth directed
CME in LASCO C2 23/1936UT. A slow southwest directed CME was
observed from 23/1600UT and appeared to be associated with activity
on or behind the southwest limb (GOES SUVI imagery). The solar
wind speed on UT day 23-Oct ranged from 365 to 585km/s with an
overall increasing trend, and is currently near 520km/sec. The
increase in solar wind speed is due to a coronal hole wind stream.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +10 to -8.
Bz is currently orientated mildly northward potentially reducing
any induced activity if this northward orientation persists.
Two isolated coronal holes are now visible in the solar northeast
quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 21212432
Cocos Island 7 21111332
Darwin 6 21112322
Townsville 10 2122234-
Learmonth 11 22212433
Alice Springs 8 11212422
Gingin 10 21211343
Canberra 8 11211432
Hobart 8 11211432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Macquarie Island 9 12202432
Casey 22 35532333
Mawson 35 43323375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 19 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 87
Planetary 25 1135 4553
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 17 G0, chance G1
25 Oct 14 G0, chance G1
26 Oct 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 21 October
and is current for 23-25 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on 23-Oct. In the Antarctic
region G1 periods were observed at Casey, and an isolated period
of G3 was observed at Mawson. G0 conditions with the chance of
isolated G1 periods are now expected over 24-25-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected for middle to high
latitudes during 24-25-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25-35%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25-35%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct 45 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 55 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 23-Oct were
depressed by 25-35% in southern Australian region following recent
mild geomagnetic activity. Northern Australian region MUFs were
generally near predicted monthly values. The depressed conditions
at Cocos Island are probably due to equatorial ionospheric anomaly
variation rather than the recent mild geomagnetic activity which
impacted the regional middle latitude ionosphere. Spread F was
observed overnight at Hobart, Canberra and Perth. MUFs are expected
to be 15% depressed to near normal today with further degraded
HF conditions for the southern Australian region possible
over 24-25-Oct, particularly during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 16.5 p/cc Temp: 53500 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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