[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 22 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 23 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several minor C-class flares. There are four minor sunspot
regions on the solar disk, and an new small region emerging at
S11W04. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
23-25 Oct. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. Two narrow southeast
directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 from 22/0224UT and 22/1036UT
but could not be correlated to on disk activity. A larger northwest
CME was observed from 22/0612UT, in association with a C6.4 flare
from behind the northwest limb. The solar wind speed on UT day
22-Oct ranged from 307 to 400km/s. The wind speed trend was relatively
flat until around 22/2000UT, then the speed increased and is
currently near 400 km/s. This may indicate an earlier than expected
entry into the wind stream from the coronal hole in the solar
southern hemisphere. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 12 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +8 to -11. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions
was observed 22/0830-1700UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: G1
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 17 21234542
Cocos Island 12 11213532
Darwin 15 21224532
Townsville 13 21234432
Learmonth 22 21235552
Alice Springs 17 21134542
Gingin 23 11134652
Canberra 15 21134532
Hobart 21 21245542
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Macquarie Island 43 11364761
Casey 15 44332322
Mawson 23 33333553
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0021 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 20 G0-G1
24 Oct 16 G0-G1
25 Oct 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 21 October
and is current for 23-25 Oct. G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on 22-Oct. In the Antarctic
region G2 and G3 periods were observed at Macquarie Island, and
G1 conditions observed at Mawson. This activity was associated
with a sustained interval of southward IMF conditions. Solar
wind parameters suggest that the Earth may have just entered
the anticipated coronal hole wind stream earlier than expected
and G0-G1 periods are now expected 23-24-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Fair Fair
24 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected for middle to high latitudes
during 23-24-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 55 Near predicted monthly values northern Aus. region
23 Oct -10 Depressed 20 to 30% southern Aus. region
24 Oct 65 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on 22
October and is current for 23 Oct only. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 22-Oct were near predicted monthly values for
most of the UT day. Following unexpected overnight geomagnetic
activity southern Australian region MUFs are currently depressed
by up to 30% after local dawn this morning. Northern Australian
region MUFs are currently near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed during local night hours at Hobart. Depressed
and degraded conditions are now expected for southern Australian
region for 23-Oct. Northern Australian region MUFs are expected
to remain near normal. Further degraded HF conditions for the
southern Australian region are possible if coronal hole wind
stream induced geomagnetic activity eventuates over 23-24-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 26400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list