[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 21 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 22 10:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 112/63 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several minor C-class flares. There are four minor sunspot
regions on the solar disk. Solar region AR3128((S18W50, beta)
showed development, and region AR3126(S11W07, beta) has shown
slight growth. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level
over 22-24 Oct. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. On disk
activity was noted just to the east of solar region AR3126 in
GOES SUVI imagery at 21/0420UT, possibly a very small filament
eruption, with subsequent plasma motion visible to the northeast
in SDO193 imagery from 21/0440UT. A directly northward (out of
the ecliptic plane) mass ejection was observed in LASCO difference
imagery from 21/0449UT, and may be associated with this event.
A northwest CME was observed at 21/0712UT and is presumed to
be a behind the limb event. The solar wind speed on UT day 21-Oct
exhibited an overall declining trend, ranging from 349 to 424
km/s, and is currently near 360 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5. An increase in solar wind speed is expected
from late on 23-Oct due to a moderate sized southern hemisphere
coronal hole currently crossing the central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11121122
Cocos Island 3 11111121
Darwin 4 11121122
Townsville 5 21121122
Learmonth 5 11132121
Alice Springs 3 11121111
Gingin 3 11021121
Canberra 3 11021112
Hobart 3 12120012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 01221001
Casey 10 34321121
Mawson 8 33232111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 1012 3203
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 6 G0
23 Oct 16 G0, chance G1
24 Oct 25 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 21-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are generally expected over 22-23 Oct. A coronal hole currently
in the southeast solar quadrant is expected to increase geomagnetic
activity to G0-G1, during 24-25 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 22-23
Oct, with degraded conditions expected for middle to high latitudes
on 24-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
23 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct 65 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 21-Oct were
near predicted monthly values for the northern Australian region.
Southern Australian region MUFs were mildly depressed during
the local day. Spread F observed local night hours at Hobart.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 22-23
Oct. Degraded conditions are possible for southern Australian
region 24-25-Oct, if coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic
activity eventuates.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 96300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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