[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 20 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 21 10:30:58 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. The majority of the flaring activity
was from beyond the limb region AR3122 (N25W93). There are currently
two numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one
unnumbered region. AR3126 (S12E05, beta) is the most magnetically
complex region and has shown decay in its trailer spots. AR3127
(S22E26, alpha) has exhibited spot development. A new unnumbered
region recently appeared at ~N14E26 (alpha) and appears stable.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 21-23 Oct.
A north-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 20/1148UT. A northward eruption is also visible
in GOES-SUVI imagery from 20/1132UT. This CME is not considered
geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The
solar wind speed on UT day 20-Oct was stable, ranging from 405
to 485 km/s, and is currently near 420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -6. The solar wind speed is expected to
decline over 21-22 Oct, then increase on 23-Oct due to a moderate
sized southern hemisphere coronal hole currently crossing the
central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 11133211
Cocos Island 3 11112111
Darwin 5 11123211
Townsville 9 21134212
Learmonth 10 22134222
Alice Springs 6 10133211
Gingin 8 20134112
Canberra 5 10123211
Hobart 6 11133211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
Macquarie Island 15 10246200
Casey 10 33323122
Mawson 16 22224335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1110 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 9 G0
22 Oct 6 G0
23 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in Antarctica, with an isolated period of G2 observed
at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected over 21-23 Oct. A coronal hole currently in the southeast
solar quadrant is expected to increase geomagnetic activity to
G0-G1, during 24-25 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 21-23
Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
22 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
23 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 20-Oct were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 21-23 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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