[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 19 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 20 10:31:07 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently three numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3126 (S12E17, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically
complex region and has exhibited spot development over the 24-hour
period. AR3124 (S33W79, beta) appears stable and will soon rotate
over the western limb. An unnumbered region recently appeared
at S22E40 (beta) and has shown minor growth. Another unnumbered
region is located at S20E04 (alpha) and appears stable. AR3125
(S25W24, alpha) has decayed. Solar activity is expected to be
at R0 levels over 20-22 Oct, with a chance of R1. Several CMEs
were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 19-Oct decreased, ranging from 390 to 485
km/s, and is currently near 420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -4. The solar wind speed is expected to
decline over 20-22 Oct. A moderate sized coronal hole is visible
in the southern hemisphere and is expected to influence the solar
wind speed from 23-24 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 21111001
Cocos Island 0 10100000
Darwin 1 11110100
Townsville 3 21111102
Learmonth 2 21011101
Alice Springs 1 11010001
Gingin 3 31101001
Canberra 1 11011001
Hobart 1 11011001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 11101001
Casey 9 43321012
Mawson 11 34222014
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 1001 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 10 G0
21 Oct 9 G0
22 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 19-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are generally expected over 20-22 Oct. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrent
patterns suggest a very mild increase in activity is possible over
20-21 Oct. A coronal hole currently in the southeast solar quadrant
is expected to increase geomagnetic activity to G0-G1, during
24-25 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 20-22
Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Oct 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Oct 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 19-Oct were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed at
Perth and Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 20-22
Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 523 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 316000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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