[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 18 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 19 10:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Oct was at the R0 level.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk, none of which are particularly significant. The
largest, solar region AR3124(S33W66, beta) which has been stable,
only produced low level C class flare activity, and is now starting
to approach the solar southwest limb. Solar region AR3125(S25W10,
beta) is declining. After region AR3124 departs the solar disk
the remaining solar regions are all very small. A new single
sunspot has emerged in the southeast solar quadrant, which may
be numbered if the spot persists. There is some emission on the
solar southeast limb but at this stage it does not appear to
be that significant. Solar activity is expected to be at R0 levels
over 19-21 Oct. Previously active solar region AR3110 is due
back to the northeast solar limb on 19-Oct at latitude range
N16-20 and there is some minor emission behind the northeast
limb at this solar latitude possibly indicating that some spots
could rotate onto the disk in coming days. The solar wind speed
on UT day 18-Oct was elevated with a declining trend, ranging
from 480 to 585km/s, and is currently near 480km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -4. The solar
wind speed is expected to further decline over 19-21-Oct, there
is a chance for a slight increase in wind speed on 20-Oct due
to a small coronal hole. A moderately large coronal hole is currently
visible in the southeast solar quadrant and is expected to increase
solar wind speed from 23-24 Oct. This coronal hole is larger
on this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Cocos Island 2 11110111
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 5 22112112
Learmonth 4 22111112
Alice Springs 3 11111112
Gingin - --------
Canberra 4 11112212
Hobart 4 11112212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 11112011
Casey 15 34432223
Mawson 21 22321256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1000 2311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 6 G0
20 Oct 10 G0
21 Oct 9 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18-Oct. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated G1 period observed at
Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally expected over
19-21 Oct. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrent patterns suggest a very
mild increase in activity is possible 20-21 Oct. A coronal hole
currently in the southeast solar quadrant is expected to increase
geomagnetic activity to G0-G1, during 24-25 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 19-21-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30-50%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
21 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 18-Oct were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Strong enhancements were
observed at Cocos Island. Spread F was observed at Perth and
Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 19-21 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 595000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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