[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 17 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 18 10:30:55 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 121/73 118/70 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Oct was at the R0 level.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk, none of which are particularly significant. Solar
region AR3124(S33W52, beta) produced a C3.3 flare at 17/1714UT.
This flare was associated with a minor southwest directed CME,
with coronal diming visible in SDO193 imagery at 17/1727UT. Subsequent
event modelling of this slow minor CME shows mostly an Earth
miss, with a slight possible clip of the Earth's magnetosphere
late on 21-Oct. Solar region 3124 appears to have grown slightly,
with a more open spot configuration. Earlier in the UT day a
faint westward CME was observed in LASCO C2 from 17/0500UT but
could not be correlated with any on disk activity. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0 levels over 18-20 Oct. The solar wind
speed on UT day 17-Oct was elevated, ranging from 550 to 580km/s,
with a slight declining trend and is currently near 540 km/s.
Solar wind speed has been elevated for the past 3 days, possibly
in association with small solar coronal hole(s). The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -5. The solar wind speed is
expected to decline over 18-20-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21102301
Cocos Island 2 11101200
Darwin 3 21101202
Townsville 4 21102211
Learmonth 5 21102302
Alice Springs 3 21002201
Gingin 4 21102301
Canberra 3 10002301
Hobart 4 11102301
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 10002400
Casey 14 34432312
Mawson 10 33213401
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 2123 4323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 6 G0
19 Oct 6 G0
20 Oct 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 17-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 18-20 Oct. Geomagnetic 27 day recurrent patterns
suggest a very mild increase in activity 20-21 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 18-20-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 17-Oct were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Strong enhancements were
observed at Niue. Spread F was observed at Perth and Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs were depressed 15-25% at Learmonth and
Perth (WA) during the interval 17/00-05UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 18-20 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 576 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 580000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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