[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 16 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 17 10:31:08 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently four numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3119 (N29W82, beta) has increased in spot count and
will soon rotate over the western limb. AR3123 (N26W68, beta)
and AR3124 (S33W41, beta) have both exhibited spot development
over the 24-hour period. AR3122 (N25W41, beta) has decayed. A
new unnumbered region has appeared at S24E15 (alpha) and appears
stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R0 levels over 17-19
Oct. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 16-Oct was elevated, ranging from 540 to 605
km/s, and is currently near 575 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6. The solar wind speed is expected to
decline over 17-19 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 15 22344323
Cocos Island 9 22223313
Darwin 13 22334323
Townsville 15 22344323
Learmonth 17 32344324
Alice Springs 15 22344323
Gingin 16 32344323
Canberra 15 22344323
Hobart 15 22344323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Macquarie Island 31 31466423
Casey 31 46544333
Mawson 33 54444336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 12 5223 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 10 G0, slight chance G1
18 Oct 6 G0
19 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Oct. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 17-19 Oct, with a slight chance of G1 on 17-Oct due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 17-19
Oct. There is a slight chance of degraded HF conditions on 17-Oct
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Oct were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in northern
Australian regions. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 17-19 Oct. There is a chance of mild degradations
on 17-Oct due to possible increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 517 km/sec Density: 10.6 p/cc Temp: 327000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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