[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 15 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 16 10:31:05 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Oct was at the R0 level,
with two C-class flares. There are currently three numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region.
AR3122 (N25W27, beta) and AR3123 (N26W54, alpha) recently appeared
on the solar disk and have both exhibited spot development. AR3119
(N29W68, beta) has decayed. One unnumbered region is located
at S35W24 (alpha) and has shown growth over the 24-hour period.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0 levels over 16-18 Oct.
A filament was observed lifting off the solar disk in H-alpha
imagery from ~S37W22 at 14/2211UT. A subsequent southwest-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
14/2312UT. Modelling of this CME suggests it does not have an
Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Oct increased, ranging from
415 to 580 km/s, and is currently near 530 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +12 to -8. The solar wind speed
is expected to decline over 16-18 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 32221332
Cocos Island 5 22220220
Darwin 8 32221322
Townsville 9 32221332
Learmonth 10 33221332
Alice Springs 7 22221322
Gingin 9 32221332
Canberra 10 32230332
Hobart 10 32231332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 14 33241432
Casey 30 55632333
Mawson 37 54433373
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 2345 4312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 8 G0
17 Oct 6 G0
18 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
and G3 observed at Mawson, and a period of G1-G2 at Casey. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 16-18 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 16-18
Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-Oct were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed in southern
Australian regions. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 16-18 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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