[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 October 22 issued 2331 UT on 14 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 15 10:31:03 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0945UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Oct was at the R1 level,
due to a long duration M1.3 flare at 14/0944UT from AR3112 (N23W92,
beta) which has now rotated beyond the western limb. There are
currently two numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk
and three unnumbered regions. AR3119 (N29W55, beta) and AR3121
(N23E44, beta) have both decayed over the 24-hour period. Three
unnumbered regions have appeared at N26W12 (alpha), S17W35 (alpha)
and S26E30 (alpha). Solar activity is expected to be at R0 levels
over 15-17 Oct, with a chance of R1 on 15-Oct. Several CMEs were
observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind
speed on UT day 14-Oct increased, ranging from 290 to 470 km/s,
and is currently near 445 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 18 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +15 to -15. A sustained period of southward IMF
conditions was observed from 14/0304UT to 14/0855UT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 15-Oct before declining
to background levels over 16-17 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 12343213
Cocos Island 8 12233212
Darwin 9 12233213
Townsville 10 12243213
Learmonth 11 23333213
Alice Springs 11 12343203
Gingin 12 12334313
Canberra 13 12344213
Hobart 14 13344213
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 22 13545412
Casey 17 34433323
Mawson 27 23563215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1020 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 10 G0, slight chance G1
16 Oct 6 G0
17 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Macquarie Island, and one period of G1-G2 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-17 Oct. There
is a slight chance of a mild increase in geomagnetic activity
on 15-Oct due to a weak glancing blow from a CME first observed
on 11-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 15-17
Oct. There is a slight chance for mildly degraded conditions
during local night hours for middle to high latitudes on 15-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 100 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Oct 100 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Oct 100 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Oct were
mostly above predicted monthly values by 15-60% enhanced. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 15-17 Oct, with mostly good HF conditions expected. Slight
degradations of HF conditions may occur on 15-Oct due to the
expected arrival of a CME first observed on 11-Oct. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 16500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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