[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 October 22 issued 2335 UT on 13 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 14 10:35:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0020UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Oct was at the R1 level.
A small disappearing filament is visible at S30E05 on H-alpha
imagery at 13/0614UT. A resultant minor CME was observed in LASCO
C2 from 13/0748UT and is not likely to be geoeffective. There
are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Solar
region AR3112 (beta, N22W82) produced an M1.5 flare at 13/0020UT.
AR3112 and nearby AR3116 (beta, N31W78) continue to decay and
will both soon rotate off the solar disk. Solar region AR3119
(beta, N29W43) continues to decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0 level, with the chance of isolated low level R1 flares
over 14-15 Oct. The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Oct ranged
from 291 to 330 km/s with a declining trend, and is currently
near 301 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+1 to -5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11101012
Cocos Island 1 11100011
Darwin 2 11100012
Townsville 2 11101012
Learmonth 3 12101012
Alice Springs 1 11100011
Gingin 3 11101022
Canberra 1 01100011
Hobart 2 02101011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 01210001
Casey 6 23122022
Mawson 10 43113222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1001 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 6 G0
15 Oct 10 G0, slight chance of G1
16 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 13-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 14-16 Oct. There is a slight chance of a mild
increase in geomagnetic activity on 15-Oct due to a weak glancing
blow from a recent CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 14-16
Oct. There is a slight chance for mildly degraded conditions
during local night hours for middle to high latitudes on 15-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% to 35%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% to 50%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% to 25%..
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 110 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
15 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-Oct were
mostly above predicted monthly values by 15-50% enhanced. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced
over 14-16 Oct, with mostly good HF conditions expected. Slight
degradations of HF conditions may occur on 15-Oct due to the
expected arrival of a CME first observed on 11-Oct. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible. Spread F was observed
during local night hours at Hobart.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 45000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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