[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 October 22 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 13 10:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Oct was at the R0 level,
with no significant flare or coronal mass ejection activity.
Two minor westward CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 from 12/1436UT,
associated with a C8.8 flare at 12/1418UT, and from 12/1736UT
associated with a C4.7 flare at 12/1629UT. Both of these minor
flares appeared to originate near the trailer section of AR3112
(using SDO304 imagery) at N25W55. Event modelling shows that
these two very slow CMEs are not likely to be geoeffective.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk,
along with several tiny emerging spots. Solar region AR3112 (beta,
N22W67) continues to decline. Nearby solar region AR3116(beta,
N31W62) has been quiet. These two regions are approaching the
northwest solar limb. Solar region AR3119(beta, N29W28) which
recently showed growth is now showing some decline in intermediate
spots. Small region AR3118 (beta, N09W16) is declining. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0 level, with the chance for isolated
low level R1 flares over 13-15 Oct. The solar wind speed on UT
day 12-Oct ranged from 333 to 409 km/s with a declining trend,
and is currently near 340 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +2 to -4.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11112211
Cocos Island 3 11112120
Darwin 5 21112212
Townsville 5 11113212
Learmonth 4 11112221
Alice Springs 3 10112211
Gingin 4 10112221
Canberra 2 10012111
Hobart 2 10012111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 00012100
Casey 6 22222122
Mawson 27 41113266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3110 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 6 G0
14 Oct 6 G0
15 Oct 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with two periods of G2 observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 13-15
Oct. There is a slight chance for a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity on 15-Oct due to a weak glancing blow from a recent
CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 13-15
Oct. There is a slight chance for mildly degraded conditions
during local night hours for middle to high latitudes on 15-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-65%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 74
Oct 69
Nov 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 100 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
14 Oct 100 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
15 Oct 100 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-Oct were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 15-65% enhanced. Ionospheric
scintillation was briefly observed at Darwin 12/1716-1731UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 10-20%
enhanced over 13-15 Oct, with good HF conditions expected. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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